[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the Bay of Campeche near 20N95W have become a
little better organized since yesterday. Scattered to moderate
convection extends 280 to 300 nm north of the low center.
However, recent satellite-based wind data indicate that the
circulation is elongated and poorly defined. This system is
expected to move slowly northwestward toward the northeastern
coast of Mexico, and could become a tropical cyclone before it
moves inland in a day or two. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. Heavy
rainfall is also likely to spread over southeastern Texas and
Louisiana through Thursday. Interests along the Gulf coast of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at http://hurricanes.gov for
more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Three tropical waves are noted between the west coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave is along 19W from 11N southward. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is associated with this wave.
from 08N-03N between the coast of Africa to 21W.

A second tropical wave is along 37W from 11N southward. Scattered
showers can be found near the proximity of the wave axis. The TPW
animation shows a surge of moistened air in association with the
wave.

A third tropical wave is along 55W from 12N southward. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are on either side of the wave axis,
mainly south of 08N. The wave will help to enhance showers and
thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal
section of Guinea near 09N13W, then continues to near 05N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 04N35W, then continues W of a
tropical wave from 04N39W to 02N50W. Aside from the convection
mentioned above associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate strong convection is noted from near Africa from 08N-
03N between 11W-26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad area of low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche
near 20N95W. The low is forecast to move NW toward near the coast
of Mexico through late Tuesday, with a medium chance of tropical
cyclone development. See the Special Features section above for
more details. A surface through extends from 18N92W to the low
center to near 22N97W. Scattered moderate convection extends out
280 nm north of the broad low center. A diffluent pattern aloft
is helping to induce this convective activity. Moderate to fresh
E winds are seen on ASCAT north of the low from 22N-26N between
93W-97W.

Broad low pressure in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico will
drift NW toward Tampico Mexico through Tuesday, possibly
intensifying to a tropical cyclone. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
ESE winds will persist south of a ridge in the northern Gulf of
Mexico through Tuesday night. The ridge will shift eastward on
Wednesday. Expect S to SE return flow for most of the basin
through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant moisture persists across portions of the Lesser Antilles
in association with a mid-upper level trough over the eastern
Caribbean, and a surface trough that extends from Guadeloupe
east-northeastward to near 17N56W. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms cover portions of the Lesser Antilles and SE Caribbean,
including near Guadeloupe. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific
monsoon trough, located over Panama, is inducing scattered showers
and storms south of 12N and west of 80W. Generally fair weather
prevails over the central and NW Caribbean due to a mid-level
ridge over the NW Caribbean.

A ridge north of the area along 28N will maintain moderate to
fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea through
midweek. A broad trough is expected to develop north of Puerto
Rico by later today, and then drift N-NE through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 30N78W to 28N79W. Scattered
showers are further east from 25N-31N between 69W-79W. A weak
upper-level trough axis is along 64W between 21N-32N. Upper-
level diffluence east of the upper trough axis is inducing
scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 59W-62W.
Surface ridging extends over the southeastern and central Bahamas.
Farther south, a surface trough that extends from Guadeloupe to
near 17N56W is inducing scattered moderate convection within 90
nm of the trough axis east of 53W. Some scattered convection is
also from 20N-25N between 52W-58W due to a small area of upper-
level diffluence. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by
surface ridging, anchored by a 1032 mb high near 37N44W.

A ridge along 28N, from the Bahamas eastward, will shift ESE
today. High pressure will build southward into the NW waters from
tonight through Tuesday night. Fairly tranquil marine conditions
are expected elsewhere in the forecast area. Broad low pressure is
expected to develop north of Puerto Rico by later today, and then
drift N-NE through Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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