[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure N of the area will support
winds briefly increasing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia
tonight. Seas will build to 14 ft. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave passing the Cabo Verde Islands is along 25/26W
from 04N-19N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is in the vicinity of the wave.

A tropical wave extends from 30N41W to 19N39W, moving SW at 25-30
kt. This is not an African easterly wave. This wave originated
over the NE Atlantic. The wave is traveling through a dry
environment, and no convection is noted.

A tropical wave is along 55W from 24N southward, moving west at
10-15 kt. This wave has a well defined surface signature on
satellite imagery. Scattered showers are present near the wave
axis mainly from 20N-24N between 54W-56W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W from 26N southward,
moving west at 15-20 kt. Radar imagery shows scattered showers
near and over Puerto Rico, Mona Passage and Hispaniola. Along
most of the wave axis, dry air over the Caribbean is preventing
any convection at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 89W from 03N-21N,
moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is enhancing tstorms over land
over portion of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. At
this time, scattered shower activity is moving into the Bay of
Campeche.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near Senegal
13N16W to 09N24W. The ITCZ begins near 07N28W to the coast of
South America near 01N49W. Besides the convection mentioned in
the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection are seen
from 04N-08N between 28W-44W and also along the coast of Sierra
Leone and Guinea.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging is over the the northern Gulf of Mexico,
anchored by a 1020 mb surface high centered near Central FL.
Gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf and central Gulf. 10-15 kt
SE winds are over the far W and SW Gulf. Scattered showers and
tstorms are in the far NE Gulf just offshore the Florida Big Bend.
Isolated showers and tstorms are also been enhance by the tropical
wave near 89W in the Bay of Campeche and NW portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

A high pressure ridge will remain near the northern Gulf coast
through Sun night before it weakens Monday. Gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds will generally continue across the basin,
except fresh to occasionally strong winds to the NW of the Yucatan
peninsula during the evening and overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning for the coast of N Colombia. Refer to the Tropical
Waves section above for details on the waves traversing the
Caribbean.

Upper-level ridging is over the central Caribbean. GOES-16 low and
mid level water vapor channels indicate the presence of dry air
over much of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. This does not
include the Windward Islands, where moisture is leading to
scattered showers and tstorms from 10N-15N between 57W-64W. The
western Caribbean is somewhat more moist, with scattered tstorms
noted over western Cuba. ASCAT data indicates strong trade winds
south of 13N between 72W-77W with mainly moderate to fresh winds
from 15N-13N in the central Caribbean extending into the Gulf of
Honduras, and gentle to moderate on the eastern Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast
period. Gale force winds will prevail along the Coast of Colombia
tonight into early Thu. Locally strong trade winds will pulse
across the Gulf of Honduras each night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
waves traversing the basin.

Scattered showers and tstorms cover the W Atlantic to the west
into the Bahamas. Remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad
1030 mb high centered near 36N25W.

A high pressure ridge along 29N/30N will maintain gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds through Mon night. Winds will
pulse to fresh to strong between the southeastern Bahamas and
Hispaniola, primarily during the evening hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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