[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
717 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure N of the area will support
winds briefly increasing to gale-force near the coast of Colombia
this evening and tonight. Seas will build to 14 ft. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave passing the Cabo Verde Islands is along 25/26W
from 04N-20N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N-11N between 23W-29W.

A tropical wave extends from 30N40W to 20N35W, moving SW at 25-30
kt. This is not an African easterly wave. This wave originated
over the NE Atlantic. At this time, the wave is traveling through
a dry environment, and no convection is noted.

A tropical wave is along 54W from 05N-23N, moving west at 10-15
kt. This wave has a well defined surface signature on satellite
imagery. Scattered showers and tstorms are within 90 nm of the
northern portion of the wave axis from 20N-23N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W from 10N-24N,
moving west at 15-20 kt. Radar imagery shows scattered showers
near and over Puerto Rico. Satellite imagery also shows scattered
showers and tstorms over the Dominican Republic. Along most of the
wave axis, dry air over the Caribbean is preventing any convection
at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W from 04N-21N,
moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is enhancing tstorms over land
over portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 14N17W
to 10N24W. The ITCZ begins near 09N27W to 05N38W to the coast of
South America near 01N50W. Besides the convection mentioned in
the tropical wave section, scattered showers and isolated tstorms
are seen from 04N-09N between 29W-45W and also off the coast of
Africa from 09N-15N, mainly E of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging is over the the northern Gulf of Mexico,
anchored by a 1021 mb surface high centered near New Orleans
Louisiana. Gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf and central
Gulf. 10-15 kt SE winds are over the far W and SW Gulf. Scattered
showers and tstorms are in the far NE Gulf just offshore the
Florida Big Bend as well as inland over Florida. Isolated showers
and tstorms extend out over the central Gulf south of the ridge
axis from 27N-28N between 85W-92W. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are found across the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Tstorms
are being enhanced by a tropical wave over the NW portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Another area of tstorms that formed over
western Cuba from afternoon heating extends over water to the
north of western Cuba, mainly south of 24N and east of 86W.

A high pressure ridge will remain near the northern Gulf coast
through Sun night before it weakens Monday. Gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds will generally continue across the basin,
except for fresh to strong to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula
during the evening and overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning for the coast of N Colombia. Refer to the Tropical
Waves section above for details on the waves traversing the
Caribbean.

Upper-level ridging is over the central Caribbean. GOES-16 low and
mid level water vapor channels indicate the presence of dry air
over much of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. This does not
include the Windward Islands, where moisture is leading to
scattered showers and tstorms from 10N-15N between 57W-64W. The
western Caribbean is somewhat more moist, with scattered tstorms
noted over western Cuba. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen in
the far SW Caribbean, south of 12N. ASCAT data from this morning
indicated strong trade winds from 11N-16N between 72W-80W with
mainly moderate winds elsewhere in the basin.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast
period. Winds will briefly increase to gale force along the Coast
of Colombia this evening into early Thu. Locally strong trade
winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras each night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
waves traversing the basin.

Patches of isolated to scattered showers and tstorms cover the W
Atlantic to the west and north of a line from Andros Island
Bahamas to Great Abaco Bahamas to 29N72W to 31N66W. Similar
convection is over the Straits of Florida just N of the N coast of
Cuba, mainly west of 80W. A large 1029 mb high centered over the
Azores extends a surface ridge axis from the Azores to 29N50W to
29N65W.

A high pressure ridge along 29N will maintain gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds through Mon night. Winds will pulse to
fresh to strong between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola,
primarily during the evening hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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