[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071712
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
112 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W from 04N-17N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are from 08N-11N between
18W-23W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W from 12N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. A 1012 mb low is near 08N along the wave.
Scattered moderate showers are from 04N-08N between 26W-38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W from 14N southward,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 09N-12N between
45W-51W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57/58W from 05N-20N,
moving W around 15 kt. Isolated showers and tstorms are just
inland over northeastern South America, but dry Saharan air is
limiting any shower activity at this time along the remainder of
the wave. A slight increase in showers is possible tonight into
Monday for the Lesser Antilles and E Caribbean.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 80W from 20N southward
to 05N in the East Pacific. Movement is W around 15 kt. Scattered
showers and tstorms are seen at the northern end of the wave from
17.5N-20N between the Windward Passage and 83W. Additional
scattered activity is seen in the far SW Caribbean south of 10N,
where the wave axis intersects the East Pacific monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 08N22W to 08N37W. The ITCZ begins near
08N37W to 09N46W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 10N49W
to 10N56W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical
waves section, no other significant shower activity is noted.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation is over the NE Gulf of
Mexico. Low to mid level troughing is over the NE Gulf and
northern Florida. As a result, scattered showers and tstorms are
seen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, mainly from 24N-30N, between
the Gulf Coast of Florida and 88W. A 1018 mb surface high is near
26N90W. A mid-level ridge over the NW Gulf and SE Texas is leading
to subsidence and mostly fair weather in that region.

A trough of low pressure over the SE United States is forecast to
move S into the NE Gulf of Mexico by Wed, where a broad area of
low pressure is likely to form. Thereafter, some tropical
development is possible while the low meanders near the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the western Yucatan Peninsula
and south-central Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level diffluence and
upper-level divergence are over the NW Caribbean to the east of
this upper trough. Enhanced moisture is seen in the TPW product
over the western Caribbean along and ahead of the tropical wave
along 80W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over the Gulf of
Honduras and Belize, as well as over portions of eastern Honduras
and eastern Nicaragua. The atmosphere is somewhat drier over the
eastern and central Caribbean. Some African dust is noted in this
area, although the dust is not particularly dense.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
tradewinds across mainly the south central Caribbean through the
next several days, modulated by a series of tropical waves moving
through the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Low to mid level troughing over northern Florida along with
upper-level divergence off the coast of Georgia and northern
Florida is leading to scattered tstorms north of 27N and west of
77W. Scattered tstorms also extend from the NW Bahamas to the N
coast of Cuba and westward through the Florida Straits. Farther E,
a surface trough from 29N63W to 27N68W is producing isolated
showers and tstorms along its axis. A cold front enters the
discussion area near 32N40W to 29N46W to 27.5N53W, then stationary
to 28N59W. Scattered showers are along and within 60 nm ahead of
the front east of 48W. West of 48W, only isolated showers are
along the front.

High pressure near 32N52W will support gentle to moderate breezes
north of 22N through mid week, with moderate to fresh E winds
south of 22N, pulsing to strong in the late evenings. Low pressure
may develop over the northeast Gulf of Mexico by mid week,
allowing southerly winds to increase off northeast Florida Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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