[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W/21W from 15N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 08N to 12N between 16W and 22W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers
cover the area that is from 03N to 19N between Africa and 23W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W from 12N
southward. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 08N along the
wave. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong
rainshowers are from 04N to 08N between 25W and 37W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers
cover the area that is from 01N to 11N between 22W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W from 14N
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 08N to 11N between 40W and 50W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 18N
southward. Broken low level to middle level clouds and possible
rainshowers are from 20N southward between 50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends is along 75W/76W, in the
Jamaica Channel, from 19N southward. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Windward Channel.
The wave will produce strong trade winds today and tonight,
along and to the east of the wave, as the wave moves across the
Caribbean Sea, before reaching Central America on Sunday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N20W 08N27W and to 08N35W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N35W to 10N46W, and to 10N52W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere, from 13N southward from 60W eastward, not
counting any precipitation that is related to the tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation is in the NE corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers
much of the Gulf of Mexico. The only area that does not have the
upper level anticyclonic wind flow is in the westernmost part of
the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level trough passes through the
area of the upper Texas Gulf coast, in the coastal waters of
Texas, and in the coastal waters of Mexico, toward 20N along the
coast of Mexico, near the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
A 1018 mb high pressure center is in the SW corner of
Louisiana.

Broad surface low pressure is inland, in the SE U.S.A. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the eastern part
of the Gulf of Mexico, from 23N northward from 90W eastward.

Weak high pressure will dominate the basin into the middle of
the week. It is possible that low pressure may develop in the
NE Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula to W/SW
Guatemala. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean
Sea from NW Cuba to the eastern part of Honduras. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is to
the W/NW of the line that runs from the Windward Channel to the
SE coast of Nicaragua.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the rest of
the Caribbean Sea, except for an upper level trough that runs
from Puerto Rico to 15N64W to NE Venezuela.

High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to
strong trade winds, mainly across the south central Caribbean
Sea, through the next several days. Everything will be modulated
by a series of tropical waves that will be moving through the
Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface low pressure in the SE U.S.A. is drawing moisture
toward Florida and the Bahamas and the NW part of the Atlantic
Ocean. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from Cuba northward
from 70W westward.

A cold front passes through 32N42W to 28N50W to 27N56W to
28N59W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate rainshowers are to the north of the line that passes
through 32N37W 27N50W 25N60W.

A surface trough is along 30N61W to 28N65W to 26N69W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N
to 29N between 63W and 66W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 20N northward between 60W and 70W.

High pressure along 27N/28N will support gentle to moderate
breezes north of 22N through mid week. Expect moderate to fresh
E winds south of 22N, pulsing to strong in the late evenings. It
is possible that low pressure may develop in the NE Gulf of
Mexico by mid week, allowing southerly winds to increase off
northeast Florida on Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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