[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271136
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A surface low and associated developing frontal system in the SW
Gulf is producing gale force winds, confirmed by a 27/0256 UTC
ASCAT pass. The gales will continue across the southern Gulf today
and shift east as the low and front merge with another frontal
boundary. Gales in the Gulf will end late tonight as the front
clears the basin.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

A cold front is expected to enter the northwest Caribbean this
evening. N gales are expected along the front across the Yucatan
Channel this evening, with seas up to 12 ft. These conditions
will subside by early Mon morning.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Low pressure along a warm front over the Gulf of Mexico will move
NE across the NW Bahamas and NW waters tonight, then to the waters
between Bermuda and the Carolinas Mon. N gales are expected late
this afternoon across the NW waters and offshore waters of NE and
central Florida, and will shift NE tonight through Mon and
develop on either side of the front.

Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on the warnings above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
and extends to 05N14W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate
convection is along and S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from
from 00N-05N between 05W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a 1010 mb surface low is over the SW Gulf of
Mexico near 23N95W. A forming front extends ENE from the low to
25N87W. A surface trough extends SSW from the low to 19N96W. A
second surface low of 1009 mb is just north of the Yucatan
Channel near 22N86W as of 0900 UTC. A warm front extends from the
low to Miami Florida to 30N70W. Aloft, the SPC 27/0000 UTC upper-
air analysis reveals a 150+ kt jet streak at 250 mb over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico stretching over portions of the SE
United States. Portions of the central and northeast Gulf are
under the right entrance region of the jet streak. The jet streak,
combined with enhanced upward motion from an approaching mid-upper
level trough over east Texas, is leading to scattered to numerous
showers with isolated thunderstorms covering much of the Gulf of
Mexico. Gale force winds are also occurring over portions of the
basin. See section above for details.

The low and developing front in the SW Gulf will merge today with
the low and front over the SE Gulf as gales continue across the
southern Gulf today. The combined front will move SE this evening
and tonight as a cold front and clear the Gulf with high pressure
building across the N Gulf through Mon. Another cold front will
enter the Gulf on Tue, with northerly gales expected W of the
front by early Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Most of the Caribbean Sea is relatively quiet with only typical
isolated trade wind showers over the eastern Caribbean. Two fronts
over the southern Gulf of Mexico will merge today. The merged
front will sink southward as a cold front across the NW Caribbean
this evening through Mon. N gales are expected along the front
across the Yucatan Channel this evening. The front will move SE
and stall from central Cuba to the SE coast of Nicaragua Mon
night and gradually dissipate Tue. NW swell prevailing over the
Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands will subside through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front extends from 31N69W to near Miami Florida to near the
Dry Tortugas. A surface trough is east of the front from 31N66W to
the central Bahamas. Scattered showers are occurring along and
north of the warm front over the Atlantic between 70W and Florida,
with numerous rainshowers over the Florida Peninsula. Isolated
showers are near the surface trough. A 1010 mb low is over the
central Atlc near 26N37W. This occluded low has an occluded front
N and NE of the low, then a cold front extending from 30N32W to
26N29W to 21N32W. Scattered showers and tstms associated with
this low pressure system are from 22N-32N between 25W-40W.

Gales are expected east of northern Florida late this afternoon
into Monday in association with a low pressure along a frontal
system. See section above for details. The front will then start
to shift southeast in the wake of the low pressure, reaching from
31N71W to E central Cuba by Mon evening, before stalling and
dissipating Tue. Another cold front will move off the northeast
Florida coast Tue night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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