[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1251 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A 27/0256 UTC ASCAT pass shows a patch of near gale to gale force
winds in the vicinity of 25N-26N between 93W-95W. Gales are
developing now in the W and SW Gulf of Mexico. Gale conditions
are expected to continue in the SW Gulf early this morning and
then shift ENE across the central and SE portions through tonight
in association with a developing low pressure area along a front.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

A cold front is expected to enter the northwest Caribbean this
evening. N gales are expected along the front across the Yucatan
Channel tonight, with seas up to 12 ft. These conditions will
subside by early Mon morning.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Weak low pressure developing along a stalled front over the
Gulf of Mexico will move NE across the NW Bahamas and NW waters
tonight then to the waters between Bermuda and the Carolinas Mon.
Gales are expected to develop on either side of the front from
late tonight, continuing into Mon night.

Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on the warnings above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
and extends to 05N14W to 02N18. The ITCZ continues from that
point to 01N21W to 00N38W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W.
Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is S of the monsoon
trough from 00N-05N between 04W-17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is located over western Cuba and the NW
Caribbean Sea, just S of the Yucatan Channel. Another frontal
boundary is located over Texas about 90 nm inland from the Gulf
Coast with a 1018 mb low near the Austin/San Antonio area. Aloft,
the SPC 27/0000 UTC upper-air analysis reveals a 150+ kt jet
streak at 250 mb over the north-central Gulf of Mexico stretching
over portions of the SE United States. Portions of the central
and northeast Gulf are under the right entrance region of the jet
streak. Although there are no major surface features analyzed over
the Gulf at this time, the jet stream, combined with enhanced
upward motion from an approaching 500 mb trough over the south-
central United States is leading to scattered to numerous showers
with isolated thunderstorms that cover much of the Gulf of Mexico
from 24N-29N. Over the western Gulf, scattered thunderstorms are
noted from 21N-25N, west of 94W. Gale force winds are also
developing now over the west-central Gulf of Mexico. See section
above for more details.

The stalled frontal boundary across the Yucatan Channel and along
the NW coast of Cuba will lift northward across the Straits of
Florida and SE Gulf of Mexico early this morning. Reinforcing high
pressure will force the front SE later today, with low pressure
and gales expected to develop along the frontal boundary in the
SW Gulf, then move ENE toward Florida and the western Atlantic
Mon. High pressure will rebuild across the region early in the
work week. Another cold front will enter the Gulf on Tue, with
northerly gales possible W of the front Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is located from western Cuba near 23N82W to
21.5N85W to 19N87W. Scattered showers are seen over western Cuba
with isolated showers over the NW Caribbean. Over the remainder of
the Caribbean, relatively quiet weather prevails, with only
typical isolated trade wind showers over the eastern Caribbean.

The stationary front near the Yucatan Channel will drift N into
the SE Gulf of Mexico early this morning, then sink southward
across the NW Caribbean tonight through Mon. North gales are
briefly expected along the front across the Yucatan Channel
tonight. The front will move SE and stall from central Cuba to the
SE coast of Nicaragua Mon night and gradually dissipate Tue. NW
swell prevailing over the Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands
will subside through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stalled front extends from 31N67W to the Straits of Florida
with a pre-frontal trough extending from 28N70W to 22N75W.
Scattered moderate convection associated with these features
covers the area between Andros Island Bahamas and the Florida
Straits. Scattered showers are elsewhere over the Bahamas.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are N of 27N W of
65W. A 1010 mb low is over the central Atlc near 27N35W with an
associated cold front extending along 30N30W to 25N26W to 20N30W.
Scattered showers and tstms associated with this low pressure
system are from 22N-32N between 25W-40W.

A low and associated front will bring gales to the NW Bahamas and
NW waters late tonight into Mon. See section above for details.
The front will start to shift SE in the wake of the low pressure,
reaching from 31N72W to E central Cuba by Mon evening, before
stalling and dissipating Tue. Another cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast Tue night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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