[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262255
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
555 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Weak low pressure developing along a stalled front over the
Gulf of Mexico will move NE across the NW Bahamas and NW waters
Sun night then to the waters between Bermuda and the Carolinas
Mon. Gales are expected to develop on either side of the front
from Sun night, continuing through Mon night. Please refer to
the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A center of low pressure is forecast to develop along a frontal
boundary in the SW gulf early on Sun. A tight pressure gradient
between the low and strong high pressure building behind it will
lead to the development of gale force winds. Gale force winds
will affect the Bay of Campeche and the SE basin tonight through
early Mon. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

A cold front is expected to enter the northwest Caribbean on Sun
night. Gale-force winds are expected W of the front, with seas up
to 12 ft. These conditions will subside by early Mon morning.
Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of western Africa near
05N09W and extends to 01N20W to 00N29W. The ITCZ continues from
that point to 01S40W to the coast of South America near 01S48W.
Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from
00N-04N between 00W-10W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stalled frontal boundary across the Yucatan Channel and along
the NW coast of Cuba will gradually lift northward across the
Straits of Florida and SE Gulf of Mexico this evening through
early Sun. Reinforcing high pressure will force the front SE on
Sun, with low pressure expected to develop along the frontal
boundary in the SW Gulf, then move ENE toward Florida and the
western Atlantic Mon. Gale conditions are expected in the
southwest Gulf tonight and then will shift ENE across the central
and SE portions with the low pressure through Sun night. High
pressure will rebuild across the region behind the exiting low
early next week. Another cold front will enter the Gulf on Tue.
Refer to the Special Features section for further details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front over the Yucatan Channel will drift N into the
SE Gulf of Mexico this evening, then sink southward across the NW
Caribbean Sun night through Mon. North gales are briefly expected
along the front across the Yucatan Channel Sun night. The front
will move SE and stall from central Cuba to SE coast of Nicaragua
Mon night and gradually dissipate Tue. NW swell prevailing over
the Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands will subside through
the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stalled front reaches from 31N67W to the Straits of Florida
with a pre-frontal trough extending from 28N70W to 22N74W.
Scattered moderate convection associated with these features
covers the region N of 27N between 60W and 75W. Isolated showers
are elsewhere from 22N to 27N, including the Bahamas. A 1008 mb
low is over the central Atlc near 28N35W with an associated cold
front extending along 30N29W to 26N26W where it starts to
dissipate towards 20N29W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms
associated with this low pressure system are N of 25N between 22W
and 39W.

Weak low pressure developing along the stalled front over the
Gulf of Mexico will move NE across the NW Bahamas and NW waters
Sun night then to the waters between Bermuda and the Carolinas
Mon. Gales are expected to develop on either side of the front
during this time. The front will start to shift southeast in the
wake of the low pressure, reaching from 31N72W to E central Cuba
by Mon evening, before stalling and dissipating Tue. Another cold
front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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