[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261809 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

Correceted to add Atlc gale warning in Special Features

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Weak low pressure developing along a stalled front over the
Gulf of Mexico will move NE across the NW Bahamas and NW waters
Sun night then to the waters between Bermuda and the Carolinas
Mon. Gales are expected to develop on either side of the front
from Sun night, continuing through Mon night. Please refer to
the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A center of low pressure is forecast to develop along a frontal
boundary in the SW gulf early on Sun. A tight pressure gradient
between the low and strong high pressure building behind it will
lead to the development of gale force winds. Gale force winds
will affect the Bay of Campeche and the SE basin through early
Mon. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

A cold front is expected to enter the northwest Caribbean on Sun
night. Gale-force winds are expected W of the front, with seas up
to 12 ft. These conditions will subside by early Mon morning.
Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of western Africa near
04N07W and extends to 02N18W to 0N29W. The ITCZ continues from
that point to 01S40W to the coast of South America near 02S49W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N to
05N between 03W to 09W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is elsewhere N of 01N E of 03W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stalled frontal boundary across the Yucatan Channel and along
the NW coast of Cuba will gradually lift northward across the
Straits of Florida and SE Gulf of Mexico today through early Sun.
Reinforcing high pressure will force the front SE on Sun, with
low pressure expected to develop along the frontal boundary in
the SW Gulf, then move ENE toward Florida and the western
Atlantic Mon. Gale conditions are expected in the southwest Gulf
Sun morning and then will shift ENE across the central and SE
portions with the low pressure through Sun night. High pressure
will rebuild across the region behind the exiting low early next
week. Another cold front will enter the Gulf on Tue. Refer to
the Special Features section for further details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front over the Yucatan Channel will drift N into the
SE Gulf of Mexico today, then sink southward across the NW
Caribbean Sun night through Mon. North gales are briefly expected
along the front across the Yucatan Channel Sun night. The front
will move SE and stall from central Cuba to SE coast of Nicaragua
Mon night and gradually dissipate Tue. NW swell prevailing over
the Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands will subside through
the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stalled front reaches from 31N69W to the Straits of Florida
with a pre-frontal trough extending from 30N68W to 22N73W.
Scattered moderate convection associated with these features
covers the region N of 27N between 60W and 78W. Isolated showers
are elsewhere from 22N to 27N, including the Bahamas. A 1008 mb
low is over the central Atlc with an associated cold front
extending along 30N29W to 19N29W where it starts to dissipate
towards 13N44W to E of the Windward Islands near 15N59W.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms associated with this low
pressure system are N of 25N between 20W and 40W.

Weak low pressure developing along the stalled front over the
Gulf of Mexico will move NE across the NW Bahamas and NW waters
Sun night then to the waters between Bermuda and the Carolinas
Mon. Gales are expected to develop on either side of the front
during this time. The front will start to shift southeast in the
wake of the low pressure, reaching from 31N72W to E central Cuba
by Mon evening, before stalling and dissipating Tue. Another cold
front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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