[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1241 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of western Africa near
05N10W and extends to 05N15W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from
that point to 0N30W to 0N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 0N to 06N E of 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong ridge anchored by several high pressure centers near the
middle Mississippi valley extends south and covers the Gulf of
Mexico, except for the Straits of Florida where a stationary front
extends from 24N80W across the Yucatan channel to Guatemala
coastal waters. The pressure gradient between the front E of the
area and the ridge across the basin support moderate to fresh
north-northeasterly winds. The stationary front will gradually
lift northward into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. On Sunday, a
low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary in
the SW Gulf, then move ENE toward Florida and the western Atlantic
Mon. Gale conditions are possible in the southwest Gulf on Sun.
High pressure will rebuild across the region behind the exiting
low early next week. Another cold front will enter the Gulf on
Tue morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor imagery show very dry air across the Caribbean
generally supporting fair weather conditions. However, patches
of shallow moisture, remnants of a cold front over the central
Atlc, move across the NE Caribbean supporting isolated showers
including the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These showers will
be affecting portions of the Dominican Republic this afternoon.
Isolated showers are also occurring across the Yucatan channel and
far NW Caribbean associated with the tail of a dissipating
stationary front along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and
Belize. These showers extends inland western Cuba. The stationary
front will dissipate through early Sat. A weak cold front will
move through the Yucatan Channel Sun night, then stall and
dissipate over the northwest Caribbean early next week. Fresh to
strong trade winds will persist across the south central Caribbean
through Sun, then diminish next week as high pressure north of
the area shifts eastward. NW swell prevailing over the Atlantic
waters off the Leeward Islands will subside through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extending from 31N72W to Andros Island will stall
and weaken from Bermuda to western Cuba Sat. A second front will
move off northeast Florida late today then stall from 31N72W to
West Palm Beach Florida through early Sun. Weak low pressure along
the stalled front over the Gulf of Mexico will move northeast
across the Bahamas Sun then to the waters between Bermuda and the
Carolinas Sun night. The front will shift southeast Mon in the
wake of the low pressure, reaching from Bermuda to central Cuba by
late Mon, before stalling and dissipating farther east Tue.
Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue
night.

Over the central Atlc, a deep layered low reflects at the surface
as a 1012 mb low centered near 27N35W and a surface trough
extending from the low SW to 22N40W. The upper level low also
supports a cold front ahead of the low, extending from 31N31W to
21N34W to 17N56W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms
associated with these features are N of 20N between 26W and 39W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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