[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
603 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of western Africa near
07N12W and extends to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and in
the vicinity of the boundaries from 01N-04N between 10W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the Florida Straits, then becomes
stationary across the west tip of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula.
A 1026 mb high is centered on the coast at the Louisiana-Texas
border. Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail behind the
front across the basin. The Gulf has no organized deep convection
at this time, though there are some residual scattered showers
within 60 nm of the front over the Yucatan Channel and Florida
Straits.

High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the basin
through Sat before another frontal boundary moves through the
basin Sun. The next cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf by
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the west tip of Cuba to the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of
the front. A moderate pressure gradient induced by a 1031 mb high
centered east of Bermuda is helping to promote fresh tradewinds
across the basin. Slightly stronger winds are expected over the
south-central Caribbean, mainly within 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong NE
winds over much of the Caribbean tonight. The front will
weaken today. NW swell moving into Atlc waters off the Leeward
Islands will subside today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlc from 32N74W to the east
central coast of Florida at 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails within 120 nm east of the front mainly north of 25N. The
front will stall and dissipate from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by
Sat, ahead of a reinforcing front moving into the region. The
second front will stall from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by
late Sun. Weak low pressure may form along the front over the
Bahamas Mon and move northeast.

Farther east, another cold front extends from 31N32W southwestward
to 20N39W to 18N53W, where it transitions to a shear line to
21N69W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 180 nm east
of the cold front mainly north of 21N. Surface ridging prevails
across the eastern Atlc.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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