[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1225 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the western Atlantic...

Gale force winds continue along a cold front over the W Atlantic.
At 21/0300 UTC, the front extends from 31N70W to E Cuba near
22N78W. Gale force winds will continue on both sides of the front
N of 28N until 21/0600 UTC. Seas of 14-16 ft are forecast. For
additional information on this warning, please read the High Seas
Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central
Caribbean through Wednesday night and increase to at or near
gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night. For additional
information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
and extends to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 01N-04N between 10W-20W, and from
04S-05N between 22W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broken to overcast layer of low-level stratocumulus clouds
prevails over much of the eastern two-thirds of the Gulf, due to
with a cold airmass over warm waters. Strong high pressure has
moved in behind the recent cold front.

Fresh to strong winds and high seas over the southeastern Gulf
south of 27N will subside through early Mon. Strong high pressure
in the wake of the front covers the entire basin. The high
pressure will shift eastward in as low pressure deepens over the
southern Plains allowing for strong southeast to south return flow
to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico by Tue morning. The
strong return flow will expand to the eastern Gulf of Mexico by
Tue night. Another strong cold front is expected to move across
the NW Gulf of Mexico Wed morning, with the possibility of gale
force northerly winds behind it over the far western Gulf and near
the coast of Mexico. This front will reach from near the NE Gulf
to the Yucatan Peninsula early Thu and weaken as it exits the SE
Gulf Thu night followed by fresh to strong northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 21/0300 UTC, a strong cold front extends from E Cuba near
22N78W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N87W. A prefrontal surface
trough is from 18N79W to 14N83W. Scattered showers are within 120
nm of the cold front. Fresh to strong NW to N winds cover the NW
Caribbean behind the front to the Yucatan Channel along with seas
to 8 ft. Farther east, no significant convection is present.
However, trade winds are fresh to strong across a large area of
the south central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the south-central
Caribbean through Wed night and increase to at or near gale force
along the immediate coast of Colombia each night through Wed
night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail
elsewhere. A strong cold front is moving SE into the NW Caribbean
this morning, and will extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras tonight. The front will weaken but still extend from
southeastern Cuba to the northwest and north central coast of
Honduras on Mon night, and begin to weaken and drift north from
Cuba westward from Tue morning until Tue night. Strong high pres
building over the western Atlc will increase the pressure gradient
over the basin Tue through Fri resulting in strong trades across
most of the eastern and central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 21/0300 UTC, a strong cold front in the western Atlantic
extends from 31N70W to E Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm E of the front N of 26N. A broken to
overcast low-level stratocumulus clouds prevails over the W
Atlantic W of front to Florida. Gale force winds are present for a
few more hours. See above. A surface trough is over the central
Atlantic from 31N48W to 22N51W. A 1035 mb high is centered over
the E Atlantic near 34N31W.

Over the W Atlantic, the cold front will reach from near 30N65W
to 26N70W to the coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Mon morning, from
27N65W to the coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Mon night. The front
will begin to weaken and become stationary Tue afternoon from near
23N65W to near the Windward Passage. Strong winds will develop
between the front and 25N on Tue as strong high pressure builds
north of the front. These winds will persist through Wed night as
the strong high slowly shifts eastward over the western Atlc north
of the area. The next cold front is expected to move off the
Florida coast on Thu afternoon, reach from near 31N70W to the
central Bahamas and to central Cuba Fri afternoon, and from near
31N69W to the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba Fri night
followed by strong northwest to north winds and building seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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