[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
654 PM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the western Atlantic...

Gale force winds continue along with a cold front over the W
Atlantic. At 2100 UTC, the front extends from 32N73W to 25N77W.
Minimal gale force winds will continue on either side of the
front N of 28N through late tonight as the front moves E. Seas
over 15 feet are forecast north of 27N near and behind the front E
of 78W. For additional information on this warning, please read
the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central
Caribbean through Wednesday night and increase to at or near
gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night. For additional
information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
and extends to 05N13W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to 01N23W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S44W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north and within 300
nm south of the monsoon trough between the coast of Liberia and
18W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 270 nm of the
ITCZ between 18W and the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A thin layer of low-level stratocumulus clouds prevails over much
of the eastern two-thirds of the Gulf, along with a colder
airmass. Strong high pressure has moved in behind the recent cold
front. Strong NW to N winds are observed over the eastern Gulf.
Winds have decreased to fresh over the western Gulf. Although the
winds are diminishing, high seas still exist over the southeastern
Gulf. Winds and seas across the Gulf will continue to subside
through early Monday. The surface high pressure over east Texas
and the NW Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward as low pressure
deepens over the southern Plains, allowing for strong SE to S
return flow to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico by Tue
morning. The strong return flow will expand to the eastern Gulf of
Mexico by Tue night. Another strong cold front is expected to
move across the NW Gulf of Mexico by Wed morning, with the
possibility of gale force northerly winds behind it over the far
western Gulf and near the coast of Mexico. This front will reach
from near the NE Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula early Thu and
weaken as it exits the SE Gulf Thu night followed by fresh to
strong northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from near Cienfuegos
Cuba near 22N81W to the coast of Belize near 17N88W and inland to
the Guatemala/Mexico border near 16N92W. A surface trough is
analyzed just ahead of the front from 15N86W to 18N85W to 20N83W.
Scattered showers are seen within 60 nm of the cold front.
Scattered showers are also over the Gulf of Honduras near the
trough and in between the trough and the front. Fresh to strong NW
to N winds cover the NW Caribbean behind the front to the Yucatan
Channel along with seas to 8 ft. Farther east, no significant
convection is present. However, trade winds are fresh to strong
across a large area of the south central Caribbean, and moderate
to locally fresh farther north and east. The strongest winds
continue to be near the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the south-central
Caribbean through Wed night and increase to at or near gale force
near the coast of Colombia each night through Wed night. Moderate
to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere in the eastern
and central Caribbean through late Mon.

The strong cold front over the NW Caribbean is moving SE. The
front will weaken but still extend from SE Cuba to the NW and N
central coast of Honduras on Mon night, and begin to drift N from
Cuba westward from Tue morning until Tue night. Strong high pres
building over the western Atlc will increase the pressure gradient
over the basin Tue through Thu resulting in strong winds across
almost all of the eastern and central Caribbean beginning Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 2100 UTC, a strong cold front in the western Atlantic
extends from 32N73W to Nassau Bahamas near 25N77W to near
Cienfuegos Cuba near 22N81W. A line of numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection about 90 nm wide extends to about 60
nm ahead and 30 nm behind the front from 23N to 32N, including
portions of the central and northwest Bahamas. South and west of
about 23N77W, the line consists of scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the N coast of Cuba, with scattered showers over
Cuba. Gale force winds are on both sides of the front north of
28N. See section above for more details on the gale.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N48W to 22N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-32N between 44W-50W.
Most of this convection is occurring just east of an upper-level
trough axis and just west of an upper-level anticyclonic
circulation. The area east of 40W is under the influence of
a surface ridge, anchored by a 1034 mb high near 34N29W.

The strong cold front over the western Atlantic will reach from
near 30N65W to 26N70W to the coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Mon
morning and from 27N65W to the coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Mon
night. The front will begin weakening and become stationary Tue
afternoon from near 23N65W to near the Windward Passage. Strong
winds will develop between the front and 25N on Tue as strong high
pressure builds north of the front. These winds will persist
through Wed night as the strong high slowly shifts eastward over
the western Atlc north of the area. The next cold front is
expected to move off the Florida coast on Thu afternoon, reach
from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba Fri
afternoon and from near 31N69W to the southeastern Bahamas and
eastern Cuba Fri night followed by strong northwest to north winds
and building seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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