[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160954
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
454 AM EST Wed Jan 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S29W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S37W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 00N-04N between 14W-40W and near the coast of
Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 mb high pressure is centered over northern Gulf of Mexico
near 29N89W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail over
the Gulf of Mexico. A weak low pressure is centered near 27N97W
with a surface trough analyzed to the south over the west Gulf
coast from 27N97W to 21N96W. Radar imagery shows scattered
showers over the NW Gulf N of 25N and W of 90W. The remainder of
the Gulf has broken low clouds with light shower activity mainly
near the western and northern Gulf coast.

High pressure will dominate the basin through Fri. Fresh to
strong southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf
Fri night and Sat ahead of a strong cold front expected to reach
the NW Gulf on Sat evening. A large area of gales is possible
behind the front Sat night through Sun night. Strongest winds will
be near the Veracruz coast Sun on morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge builds across the western Caribbean while
zonal flow prevails across cetral-eastern Caribbean. The pressure
gradient remains relax with moderate easterly trades in place
across much of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are possible
over the northwest Caribbean along the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula and adjacent waters mainly south of 20N and west of 86W.
Overcast low clouds with isolated embedded showers are over the
Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua.
Subsidence is keeping fair weather across the entire central and
eastern Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central
Caribbean through Sat night. Highest winds will reach near-gale
force along the coast of Colombia each night through Sat night.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. A
strong cold front will cross the NW Caribbean Sun through Mon.
The front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sun morning, then extend
from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun night. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are expected behind the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends south across the west Atlantic from 31N54W
to 27N59W to 26N762. The front transitions to a stationary front
from that point to 24N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
extend 100 nm on either side of the front mainly 24N.

A stationary front from 27N65W to 24N70W will weaken today. A
reinforcing surge of cool air will freshen the winds east of the
northern Bahamas tonight and Thu. Southerly winds will strengthen
Sat through Sun morning E of Florida ahead of a strong cold front
expected to push off the Florida peninsula Sun afternoon. The
front will extend from 31N76W to 23N80W Sun night and from 31N66W
to 22N78W on Mon. Minimal gale force winds are possible north of
29N on either side of the front Sun and Mon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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