[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Wed Jan 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N29W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 00N-03N between 12W-27W and near the coast of Brazil south
of the ITCZ 01S between 40W to 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 mb high pressure is centered over Mississippi Valley near
32N89W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail over the
Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed over the west Gulf
from 27N99W to 22N97W. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate
convection over the NW Gulf N of 25N and W of 90W. The remainder
of the Gulf has broken low clouds with no shower activity present.

High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. Fresh to
locally strong southerly return flow will set up across the western
Gulf by Fri night ahead of a strong cold front forecast to reach
the NW Gulf by late Sat morning. A large area of gales will be
possible behind the front through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

In the upper levels, ridge builds across the western Caribbean
while a zonal flow prevails across cetral-eastern Caribbean. The
pressure gradient remains relax with moderate easterly trades in
place across much of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are
possible over the northwest Caribbean along the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters mainly south of 20N and west
of 86W. Overcast low clouds with isolated embedded showers are
over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, and
Nicaragua. Subsidence is keeping fair weather across the entire
central and eastern Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south-central
Caribbean Sea through Sun night. Winds will reach brief periods
near gale force along the coast of Colombia during the overnight
and early morning hours. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds
will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front is forecast to reach
the Yucatan Channel by Sun morning, extending from western Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras by late Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds
are expected behind the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends south across the west Atlantic from 31N55W
to 28N59W to 27N763. The front transitions to a stationary front
from that point to 24N69W. Scatterometer data shows gentle to
moderate NW winds behind the front. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms extend 80 to 100 nm ahead of the front mainly north
of 25N. To the east, a surface trough extends from 28N30W to
23N23W. Fair weather prevail in the vicinity of the trough.

A weakening cold front will dissipate across the forecast waters
on Thu. A reinforcing surge of cool air will freshen the winds
east of the northern Bahamas Wed night and Thu. Expect fresh to
strong southerly winds east of Florida Sat and Sun ahead of a
strong cold front forecast to enter the SW N Atalntic on Sun
morning. Gale conditions are possible ahead of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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