[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 PM EST Sun Jan 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 06N11W to 03N18W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 00N-05N between 20W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure is centered over the northern Gulf of
Mexico near 30N89W. Overcast low clouds are over the western Bay
of Campeche and S Mexico banking up along the E slopes of the
Sierra Madre Mountains. Scattered showers are along the coast of
Mexico extending from Corpus Christi, Texas south to Veracruz,
Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the southern Gulf
of Mexico, while light to gentle winds prevail over the northern
gulf. High pres will prevail over the forecast waters through
midweek. Fresh northerly winds will follow a cold front entering
the northern Gulf Wed and moving across the eastern Gulf through
Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection are within 40 to 60
nm north and south of the front over the western Caribbean. The
pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure north of the
Caribbean and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong
winds across the south central Caribbean. Latest scatterometer
data shows an area of 20 to 25 knots north of Colombia from
10-12N between 74W-78W.

A cold front over the far NW Caribbean will stall and become
diffuse today. Broad high pressure NE of the area will maintain
fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through mid
week, with highest winds expected near coast of Colombia at night.
Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will move across
the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N62W to central Cuba
near 22N77W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm
of the front to include over the central Bahamas. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail north of 26N within 300 nm east of the front.
Further east, another cold front extends from 31N27W to 23N39W
and transitions into a dissipating cold front near 23N45W.
Scattered showers are present east of the front north of 27N
between 22W-28W.

The cold front over the W Atlantic will move eastward, gradually
becoming stationary along roughly 24N east of the Bahamas Tue,
then become diffuse through Wed. Another cold front will move into
the waters off NE Florida Wed, and reach a position from Bermuda
to central Cuba late Wed, and from 26N65W to the Windward Passage
by late Thu. The cold front over the central Atlantic will stall
and gradually dissipate early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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