[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061156
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
656 AM EST Sun Jan 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N11W to 04N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N18W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 00N-05N between 20W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1023 mb is centered over the north central Gulf
of Mexico near 27N91W. Overcast low clouds are over the western
Bay of Campeche and S Mexico banking up along the E slopes of the
Sierra Madre Mountains. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the
southern Gulf of Mexico, while light to gentle winds prevail over
the northern gulf. High pressure will prevail through midweek
before retreating eastward. This will enable a cold front to move
into the NW gulf Wed, and into the central Gulf through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from W Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. The pressure
gradient between a ridge of high pressure north of the Caribbean
and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds across
the south central Caribbean.

The cold front over the far NW Caribbean will stall and become
diffuse today. The fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
south central Caribbean through mid week before diminishing Thu.
Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will move across
the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N68W to W Cuba.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm of the front
to include over the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds prevail
north of 28N within 300 nm east of the front. This cold front will
continue moving eastward, with winds increasing to near gale force
N of 28N between 46W and 53W on Mon night before diminishing
through the day on Tue. A 1022 mb high is centered over the W
Atlantic near 29N50W and extends a ridge to near the central
Bahamas. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N29W to
26N35W to 24N45W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 24N
between 21W-29W. This cold front will stall and dissipate early
next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AL/Formosa
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