[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030512
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1212 AM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE NE WINDS will persist off the coast of Colombia into
Thursday morning, from 11N to 14N between 73W and 77W. Surface
high pressure to the north of the area has been supporting
persistent GALE-FORCE winds in the south central Caribbean Sea
during the last several days, particularly at night with an added
component of localized drainage flow off the coast of Colombia.
The wind speeds will diminish later in the week as the high
pressure weakens. Please read the High Seas forecast product under
the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to
02N30W and 01N39W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
from 03N to 05N between 21W and 24W, and from 03N to 04N between
25W and 29W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 06N southward between 30W and 41W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 50W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 28N94W off the Upper Texas
Gulf coast. A warm front extends from the low pressure center
northeastward into the south central Louisiana Gulf coast. A cold
front extends from the low pressure center, to the coast of Mexico
from 21N/22N along 97W/98W. Rainshowers are possible to the NW of
the line that runs from SE Louisiana to the coast of Mexico near
19N95W.

Reinforcing cold air will push the current cold front eastward on
Thursday afternoon. The front will extend from Mobile AL to the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec on Thursday night, and from central Florida
to the Yucatan peninsula on Friday night, then sweep SE of the
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Fresh to strong winds will follow the
front across the western Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night and
Friday. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish on
Friday night and Saturday, as high pressure builds to the west of
the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a stationary front passes through 16N60W in the
Atlantic Ocean, across Guadeloupe (0.20 inches of rain during the
last 24 hours), to 18N68W. Broken low level clouds and possible
rainshowers are to the north of 15N between 60W and 73W. Other
possible rainshowers are from 75W westward, in areas of clouds
that are moving westward.

Broad surface high pressure in the west central Atlantic Ocean
will maintain fresh to strong winds across much of the Caribbean
Sea through Friday, with gale force winds expected near the coast
of Colombia during the overnight and morning hours. The wind
speeds and the sea heights will diminish later in the week, as the
high pressure weakens and shifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N30W, to 26N35W 20N40W 17N50W
and 16N60W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
25N32W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from
22N northward between 28W and 33W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere within 500 nm to the northwest of the front.

Broad surface high pressure in the west central Atlantic Ocean
will weaken and shift eastward through Friday. A cold front will
move off the coast of northeast Florida on Friday night. The
front will reach from Bermuda to Cuba on Saturday night, then
stall and weaken along 23N on Sunday and Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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