[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Wed Jan 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale force winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through
early Thursday. High pressure north of the area has been
supporting persistent gale-force winds in the south central
Caribbean Sea for the past several days, particularly at night
with an added component of localized drainage flow off the coast
of Colombia. These winds will diminish mid to late week as the
high pressure weakens. Please read the High Seas forecast product
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to
02N30W, 02N40W, to the Equator along 48W. Scattered moderate to
strong rainshowers are from 03N to 04N between 22W and 27W, and
from 02N to 04N between 32W and 39W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N to 10N between 34W and
44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N87W
to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 28N90W to the NW Gulf
near 28N94W to NE Mexico near 26N97W. Scattered showers are within
90 nm of the front. 20-25 kt northerly winds are N of the front
along the Texas coast. A north to south surface trough is over
the W Gulf from 26N96W to 22N96W to 19N95W. Distinct wind
directions are on both sides of the trough. The remainder of the
E Gulf has mostly 10-15 kt SE winds with fair weather.

The current stationary front will drift NW through tonight, then
will move eastward as a cold front on Thursday. The front will
reach from the Florida Panhandle to Paraiso Mexico on Friday
morning, before sweeping southeastward of the Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across the
western Gulf of Mexico, reaching near gale force off the coast of
Veracruz Mexico on Friday. Winds and seas will diminish from late
Friday through Saturday, as high pressure builds in the wake of
the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure
in Colombia, are maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of
the Caribbean, with winds to gale force off the coast of
Colombia. Recent scatterometer passes have been showing this, and
concurrent altimeter satellite passes along with various buoy data
have been showing 12 to 16 ft seas over the area of strong winds
and gales in the south central and southwest Caribbean, and 8 to
12 ft elsewhere south of 18N, to include the Gulf of Honduras.
Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds have been pushing into the
northern approaches to the Windward Passage as well. Generally
moderate E winds with 5 to 8 ft seas are noted over the far
northeast Caribbean. Caribbean radar mosaics have been showing a
few fast- moving trade wind showers mainly over the Leeward
Islands N of 15N and E of 67W.

High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean, and lower pressure
in Colombia, will maintain fresh to strong winds across much of
the Caribbean Sea through Friday, with gale force winds pulsing
off Colombia through Thursday morning. Winds and seas will
diminish slightly through late week, as the high pressure weakens
and shifts east ahead of a cold front, that will move into the
far NW Caribbean Sea on Saturday, then stall and weaken through
Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N68W. A cold
front is over the E Atlantic from 31N32W to 25N38W to 20N41W. A
stationary front continues to 17N50W to 17N60W. A prefrontal
trough is over the E Atlantic from 26N33W to 18N40W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 21N-31N between 30W-38W.

A surface ridge along 28N will shift eastward through Friday,
ahead of a cold front moving off the coast of northeast Florida
late on Friday. The front will move eastward, and reach from near
Bermuda to western Cuba by early Sunday, then stall and weaken
along roughly 23N through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
al/mrf/mt
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