[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1225 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the Atlantic
and lower pressure over N Colombia is forcing winds of near-gale
force over the south-central Caribbean, reaching gale-force
off of Colombia this morning. The gale warning currently in
effect will continue until 27/1800 UTC. Please refer to the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 07N11W to 03N20W to
01N25W. The ITCZ continues from that point westward to 01S30W to
the coast of South America near 04S38W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 01N-04N between 09W-18W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 01S-04N between 19W-32W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 150 nm N and 90 nm
S of the ITCZ between 32W and the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from S Florida near 26N80W to 28N90W to
the coast of Texas near 29N95W to 26N99W. Scattered moderate
convection is located over Louisiana and extends out over the
Gulf of Mexico N of 29N between 89W-95W. Another cluster of
showers and thunderstorms is located from 25N-29N between the
Florida Peninsula and 86W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
extend to 88W between 25N-27N.

The front extending from central Florida to near 28N90W will
slowly dissipate through today. High pres will then prevail
through Sat. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Dry air and strong subsidence cover the entire basin. Upper-level
anticyclonic flow covers the western two-thirds of the Caribbean
basin. Mid-level anticyclonic flow covers the eastern two-thirds
of the Caribbean. Scattered showers are moving W with the trade
winds over the NE Caribbean near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean and Atlc passages through early
Thu. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia
through early this morning. Long period N to NE swell will
propagate across the tropical Atlantic waters Wed through Sat
night, then subside Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal system extends across the central and western Atlantic.
It is analyzed as a cold front from 31N44W to 29N51W, then as a
stationary front from that point to 25N65W to the NW Bahamas near
25N77W to near Ft. Lauderdale Florida. Scattered to numerous
showers with isolated thunderstorms are seen from the front to 30N
between the Florida Peninsula and 75W. Scattered showers are
noted elsewhere along the fronts. Surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered
near 29N32W.

The stationary front that extends from 25N65W to the northern
Bahamas will weaken and slowly dissipate while lifting northward
across the western waters today and Thu. A coastal trough will
develop just offshore of the SE U.S. coast late today, and then
shift eastward across the northern waters Thu through Fri. High
pressure will then build across the area and prevail through Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net