[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
654 PM EST Tue Feb 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the Atlantic
and lower pressure over N Colombia is forcing winds of near-gale
force over the south-central Caribbean during the day, reaching
gale-force mostly at night and early morning hours. These
conditions will repeat again tonight into Wed morning. The gale
starts on 27/0000 UTC and ends on 27/1800 UTC. Please refer to
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 08N13W to 03N21W.
The ITCZ continues from that point westward to 01S30W to 01S40W to
the coast of South America near 03S41W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen with the monsoon trough from 00N-05N between
05W-21W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the ITCZ is
from 04S-02N between 30W and the coast of South America. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms cover the area from 02N-03N between
22W-27W and from 04S-01N between 27W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from S Florida near 26N80W to 28N90W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed along and north
of the front reaching northern Florida. A surface trough extends
across the northwest coastline reaching northeastern Mexico.
Another trough extends across the W Bay of Campeche. Scattered
showers are noted along both troughs. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh easterly winds across most of the basin except
west of 95W, where light winds prevail.

The front will lift N across the central and eastern Gulf
through Wed night while dissipating. High pres will then build
across the area and prevail through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Dry air and strong subsidence cover the entire basin. Mid to
upper-level ridging covers the Caribbean. A line of scattered
showers is moving west with the moderate to fresh trades affecting
the Greater Antilles, while another line of showers is noted along
and south of 12N affecting portions of South and Central America.

High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean and Atlc passages through early
Thu. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia
tonight. Long period N to NE swell will propagate across the
tropical Atlantic waters Wed through Sat night, then subside Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal system extends across the west and central Atlantic. It
is analyzed as a cold front from 31N47W to 26N60W to 25N70W, then
as a stationary front from that point to S florida near 26N80W.
Scattered showers are noted along the fronts. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb
high centered near 29N32W.

Over the W Atlantic, the front will weaken along 25N-26N through
tonight, then lift northward across the western waters Wed and
Thu. A coastal trough will develop just offshore of the SE U.S.
coast late Wed, and then shift eastward across the northern waters
Thu through Fri. High pressure will build in the wake of the
trough Thu through Sat night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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