[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1227 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between a 1027 mb Bermuda High centered
near 27N64W and a 1009 mb Colombian Low centered at 10N75W is
forcing winds of near gale over the central Caribbean and reaching
gale just north of Colombia. Ship DGTX reported E 40 kt wind and
16 ft seas at 1500 UTC, confirming the gale conditions expected.
High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds in mainly the central Caribbean Sea, and north of
Honduras during the next several days. Gale force winds will pulse
at night, and into the early morning near the coast of Colombia,
through Tuesday. No significant cold fronts are expected to reach
the Caribbean for the next several days.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from a deep 980 mb low north of our area at
40N48W west-southwestward to 33N71W, then as a stationary front to
the coast of South Carolina. The front will push southeastward and
bring SW gale conditions ahead of the front into our northeastern
corner tonight. The gale conditions will be short-lived as the
strongest pressure gradient pulls northeastward away from our
area, and conditions should drop to a strong breeze by Sat
afternoon. Seas will peak at 22 ft under a NW swell on Sat, before
diminishing on Sun.

For both of these Gale Warnings, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the Liberian coastline near
04N08W to 04N10W. The ITCZ continues from that point to near
00S51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm north of
the ITCZ from 12W-16W and 20W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends from the SW coast of Louisiana southwestward
to the southern tip of Texas. A surface trough exists along the
coast of Mexico from 19N-24N. No significant convection is
occurring in conjunction with the front or trough. Dense fog
continues along the coast of Texas and Louisiana with multiple
stations reporting 1/2 to 1/4 nm visibility. The fog extends over
the Gulf of Mexico by up to 60 nm offshore of southern Texas and
northeastern Mexico.  The fog is expected to diminish this
afternoon. Winds across the Gulf are SE moderate breeze or less.

The warm front will move into the Texas coastal plains
later today. A cold front will move off the Texas coast on
Saturday, reach from the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico
Mexico by Sunday morning, before stalling and weakening from the
Florida Keys to the SW Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The front will
dissipate on Tuesday, as it moves northward as a warm front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the
Colombian Low is forcing winds of near gale over the central
Caribbean and reaching gale just north of Colombia. No significant
deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean.  See Special
Features above for details about the Gale conditions and forecast
discussion.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front north of our area will produce SW gale conditions
ahead of the front into our northeastern corner tonight. See
Special Features section above for more details and forecast
discussion.

Surface ridging extends across the Atlantic from 29N80W to a 1027
mb Bermuda high at 27N64W to 25N34W. A cold front east and south
of the ridge extends from 32N22W to 20N41W, where it becomes a
dissipating cold front reaching to 16N56W. A pre-frontal trough
exists about a degree east of the front north of 22N. Scattered
showers are present within 60 nm of the front. Winds are moderate
breeze or weaker in association with this frontal boundary.

Long period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic Ocean
waters east of the Lesser Antilles beginning tonight, before
dissipating from Sunday through Tuesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea
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