[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221136
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure over the
Atlantic building southward over the western Atlantic and low
pressures inland over Colombia will enable winds to pulse to
gale force at night, over the next few days. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front enters the central Atlantic from 31N27W to 26N38W. A
Gale Warning is in effect for the area N of 30N between 37W-40W,
with seas 16 to 20 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the Liberian coastline near
04N08W to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast
of Brazil near 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 300 nm south of the ITCZ between 24W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the coast of Louisiana near 29N92W
to 27N96W. Over the Bay of Campeche, a surface trough extends
south from 23N90W to 19N91W. Moderate to fresh southweasterly
winds are prevailing across most of the basin while light to
gentle winds prevail south over the Bay of Campeche. No
significant convection is observed in the vicinity of the trough.

A stationary front from SW Louisiana to off of Brownsville Texas
will move inland over the Texas coast later this morning as a warm
front. A cold front will move off the Texas coast early Sat,
reach from the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico Mexico by
early Sun, before stalling and weakening from the Florida Keys to
the SW Gulf Mon. The front will dissipate Tue as it lifts northward
as a warm front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fair weather prevails across the basin supported by dry air in
the mid-and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Satellite images do
show patches of low clouds and perhaps embedded isolated showers
moving within the trade wind flow. Fresh to strong trade winds are
over the central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds cover
the remainder of the basin.

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds in mainly the central Caribbean Sea, and north of
Honduras during the next several days. Gale force winds will pulse
at night and into the early morning near the coast of Colombia
through Tue. Long period north to northeast swell will propagate
through the Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles beginning
tonight, before dissipating Sun through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging extends across the west Atlantic anchored by a
1025 mb high near 29N60W. To the east, a cold front enters the
discussion area near 31N26W and extends through 26N38W. A
stationary dissipating front extends from 31N21W to 17N49W. No
significant convection is related to this front at this time.
Scatterometer data show a fairly large region of fresh winds north
of the front to 30N, then stronger winds north of the area.
Weather conditions are quiet over the eastern and tropical
Atlantic, supported by surface high centered north of the region,
as well as dry air aloft.

A ridge axis will fluctuate between 27N and 29N through Sat, then
shift southward ahead of a cold front moving off the coast of
northeast Florida by late Sun. The front will reach from Bermuda
to the Florida Keys by Mon afternoon, before stalling and
weakening along roughly 26N through Tue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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