[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
554 AM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds pulsing
each night along the Coast of Colombia and portions of the
southwestern Caribbean through mid-week. A gale is presently on
going and is forecast to end shortly on 19/1200 UTC. Please refer
to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under
AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 07N11W and
extends to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S30W
to the coast of South America near 03S42W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 06N-
04S between 05W-26W. Similar convection is along the ITCZ from
01N-03S between 36W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 19/0900 UTC, a stationary front extends from Melbourne
Florida to Sarasota Florida to the north central Gulf of Mexico
near 27N90W to the NW Gulf near 26N95W to the Bay of Campeche
near 19N91W. Overcast low stratus and fog are noted northwest of
front. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly
winds north of the fronts, while gentle to moderate southerly
winds prevail across the remainder of the basin.

The front will lift north as a warm front today, ahead of a cold
front moving off the Texas coast late tonight. The cold front will
stall from southeast Louisiana to Tampico Mexico Wed night into
early Thu, before lifting north again as a warm front through Fri.
Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the Texas coast
by late Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds prevail over much of the
basin. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico moving quickly west with the
tradewinds. Dry air in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere
continues to dominate the region.

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds over mainly the central Caribbean and north of
Honduras, with gales pulsing off Colombia most nights through Sat.
NE to E swell will build over Atlantic waters E of the Windward
and Leeward Islands late in the week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N70W to 30N74W. A
stationary front continues to Melbourne Florida near 28N81W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Surface ridging
prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high over the
W Atlantic near 27N67W, and a 1025 mb high over the E Atlantic
near 34N21W. This pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds
across the western Atlantic, and moderate to fresh winds over the
central and eastern Atlantic.

Over the W Atlantic, the front will stall along 27N today. The
portion of the front W of 75W will lift N of the area as a warm
front through early Wed, while the portion east of 75W dissipates
and high pressure builds near Bermuda. The high pressure will
shift SW to halfway between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda
through Sat as a strong frontal boundary moves though the central
Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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