[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1234 AM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean during the next day or so, which will
tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures
inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds pulsing
each night along the Coast of Colombia and portions of the
southwestern Caribbean through mid-week. A gale is presently on
going and is forecast to end on 19/1200 UTC. Please refer to the
latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 06N10W and
extends to 01N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S30W to
the coast of South America near 03S41W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 05N-
02S between 06W-23W. Similar convection is along the ITCZ from
01N-03S between 36W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Cocoa Beach Florida to Tampa Florida to
the north central Gulf of Mexico near 27N89W. A stationary front
continues to the NW Gulf near 26N94W to 23N95W to the Bay of
Campeche near 20N94W. Overcast low stratus and fog are noted
northwest of front. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong northerly winds north of the fronts, while gentle to
moderate southerly winds prevail across the remainder of the
basin.

The entire front will stall tonight and then lift N toward the NW
Gulf states through Tue evening before moving off the Texas coast
again early Wed and stalling over the western Gulf through Thu.
Expect strong to near gale force NE-E winds N of 25N and W of the
front through Tue. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are expected W of
the cold front again on Wed. Return moderate to fresh flow will
dominate across the gulf Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds prevail over much of the
basin. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico moving quickly west with the
tradewinds. Dry air in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere
continues to dominate the region.

Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the S central
Caribbean through the coming weekend, reaching minimal gale force
along the coast of Colombia at night each night except Wed night.
Strong winds will expand northward to Hispaniola adjacent waters
through the coming weekend and westward past Jamaica starting Tue
night as strong high pres builds N of the area. Strong to near
gale force E to SE winds are also expected across the Caribbean
waters S of 20N W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through
Sat night. NE to E swell will build over Atlantic waters E of the
Windward and Leeward Islands by mid week continuing through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N76W to Cocoa Beach
near 28N81W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front.
Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb
high over the central Atlantic near 25N51W, and a 1028 mb high
over the E Atlantic near 33N23W. This pattern maintains gentle to
moderate winds across the western Atlantic, and moderate to fresh
winds over the central and eastern Atlantic.

Over the W Atlantic, the front will stall over the waters N of 27N
on Tue. The western part of the front will then lift N by Tue
night, while the eastern part will continue to move S-SE until
dissipating over the SE waters on Thu. Fresh to strong winds
associated with the front are expected over the NW forecast waters
Tue and Wed. A ridge will build again by mid week and will
prevail through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net