[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward
across the Caribbean basin during the next 24-48 hours and
combine with low pressure over Colombia, increasing the pressure
gradient and winds across the portions of the southwestern
Caribbean. Gale-force winds are expected to develop by 0600 UTC
18 Feb from 11.5N-12.5N between 73W-76W. Please refer to the
latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.
gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 07N12W and extends to
04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S41W. No significant convection is related to these
features at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters. Recent
scatterometer and surface wind data indicated gentle to moderate
southerly wind flow across the basin, mainly south of 26N. Winds
are 10 kt or less north of 26N. A stationary front currently extends
along the Gulf coastline. No significant convection is observed
across the Gulf waters at this time.

High pressure ridging and return southerly flow will
prevail through Sunday afternoon. The next cold front will move
into the northwest Gulf while a trough develops in the west-
central Gulf by Sun evening. The front will stall from just south
of the Florida Big Bend to across the northern Gulf to the
Texas/Mexico border, while the troughing lingers through Mon
afternoon. The front and trough will shift west on Monday night
with high pressure prevailing by Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
details about the forecast Gale event over the south-central
Caribbean near Colombia.

Scatterometer data and surface observations indicated moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds over the entire basin. No significant
convection is noted anywhere in the basin.

Moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Caribbean
will increase in the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to high
pressure building north of the area. Strong to near gale force
winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean Sunday night
through mid-week, reaching gale-force at nighttime. Fresh to
strong easterly winds are expected across the Caribbean waters
west of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, Sunday through
Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb
surface high centered near 31N38W. This pattern maintains gentle
to moderate winds across the region.

The next cold front will move across the waters north of 29N
early Sun, pushing east of 65W by early Monday. Another cold
front will move across the waters north of 27N on Monday
afternoon through Tuesday. Surface ridging and return flow will
prevail through mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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