[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure over the tropical Atlantic
will build westward across the Caribbean Sea during the next 48
hours and combine with low pressure over Colombia, increasing the
pressure gradient and winds across the portions of the southwestern
Caribbean. Gale Warning conditions are expected by 0600 UTC 18 Feb
from 11.5N to 12.5N between 73W and 76W. Please read the latest
Atlantic High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 07N12W and extends to
05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to the coast of Brazil near
04S38W. Scattered showers are occurring south of 02S and west of
35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters. Recent
scatterometer and surface wind data indicated moderate to locally
fresh southerly wind flow across the basin, mainly east of 90W.
Winds were southerly 10 kt or less west of 90W. Areas of dense fog
were noted in satellite imagery and surface observations along and
within 150 nmi of the coasts of southwestern Louisiana, Texas, and
Mexico north of Tampico/21N. No significant convection is observed
across the Gulf waters.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through early Sunday,
maintaining moderate to locally fresh sely return flow over the
western Gulf. The next cold front will reach the nwrn Gulf of Mexico
Sunday and extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico,
Mexico, by early Monday as broad low pressure forms off Veracruz in
the swrn Gulf Sunday night into Monday. The front is expected to
stall across nrn Gulf waters through Tuesday morning, then lift
northward across the nrn Gulf by late Tuesday as the low moves
inland over nern Mexico and dissipates. The front will move again
over the nwrn Gulf by Wednesday, reaching from sern Louisiana to
near Tampico, Mexico, by Wednesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about the
forecast gale event over the swrn Caribbean Sea near Colombia.

A weak surface trough extends from from 19N81W to 17N83W.
Scatterometer data and surface observations indicated moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds over the entire basin. No significant
convection was noted anywhere in the basin except over and near land
areas where isolated light showers were occurring, especially near
offshore land breezes.

Moderate to fresh winds over the cntrl and ern Caribbean will
increase in the srn Caribbean by early Sunday due to high pressure
westward across the entire basin. Strong to near gale force winds
are expected over the S central Caribbean Sunday night through
Tuesday night, with gale conditions possible off Colombia by 0600
UTC Monday morning. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast
across Caribbean waters W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras,
Sunday through Wednesday night. NE to E swell over Atlantic waters E
of the Windward and Leeward Islands will subside through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Weak high pressure centered near 28N74W with gentle winds west of
73W. A broad surface from 31N68W extended swd to 26N70W. Scattered
mainly light showers were occurring in the converging swly low-level
wind flow within an area 120-300 nmi east of the trough. The
remainder of the cntrl and ern Atlantic is dominated by a surface
ridge anchored by a 1032-mb surface high centered near 29N37W.

Broad high pressure should maintain light to moderate sly-swly winds
across the region through tonight. A cold front will move across the
waters north of 29N early Sunday, pushing east of 65W by early
Monday. Another cold front will move across the waters north of 27N
Monday afternoon through Tuesday. The western extent of the front is
expected to lift northward on Wednesday as another cold front
approaches from the west.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Stewart
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