[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
530 AM EST Sun Feb 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through N Liberia near 07N11W to
03N18W. The ITCZ continues westward from that point to 01S30W to
the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 04S-02N between 26W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1015 mb low pressure system was centered over the north central
Gulf near 28N88W. A stationary front extends southwestward from
the low to 24N90W, and eastward from the low to near Tampa
Florida at 28N83W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the
NE Gulf of Mexico N of 28N and E of 87W. Dense fog is presently
along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Patchy fog is over the
remainder of the north Gulf coast. In the upper levels, zonal
flow is noted with strong subsidence over the S Gulf S of 24N.

Weak low pres over the NE Gulf accompanied by weak frontal
boundaries will dissipate by early this afternoon. The combination
of high pressure building south-southwest across the area with
low pressure west of the area will result in increasing southerly
flow over the western Gulf beginning Tue night. Winds will
diminish late Thu as a cold front moves across eastern Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 09N74W. 10-30 kt
trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia. Clusters of broken low clouds with
scattered showers are over the E Caribbean E of 74W. Similar
showers are over Hispaniola, E Cuba, Jamaica, the NW Caribbean,
and E Honduras. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the Sea
with axis along 70W. Strong subsidence covers the entire
Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean will pulse to
near gale at night near the Coast of Colombia through the forecast
period. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will
continue across the forecast waters through the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb low was located just east of Florida near 30N79W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the low. Presently dense fog
is along the Florida coast near Jacksonville. A 1024 mb high is
centered over the W Atlantic near 31N67W. A stationary front
extends from the central Atlantic near 31N47W to 28N57W to 24N70W
to the N Bahamas near 24N77W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 27N-32N between 45W-52W. Scattered showers are elsewhere
within 120 nm of the front.

Over the W Atlantic, the low E of Florida near 30N79W will track
northeastward away from the area this afternoon. The low will
push a cold front across the forecast waters through early Tue
night. By late Tue night, the southern portion of the front will
extend into the far southeastern waters of the area as a weakening
trough. High pressure will build in the wake of the front through
Thu night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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