[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030509
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1209 AM EST Sun Feb 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 06N11W to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues westward from that
point to 01S35W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02S-01N between 08W-14W, from 00N-03N
between 23W-32W, and from 04S-03N between 33W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb low pressure system was centered over the north central
Gulf near 27N89W. A stationary front extends southwestward from
the low to 25N95W, and eastward from the low to near Tampa Florida
at 28N83W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the NE Gulf
of Mexico N of 28N and E of 87W. Elsewhere, a surface trough is
over the SW Gulf from 24N93W to 21N94W. No significant
precipitation is noted. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted
with strong subsidence over the S Gulf S of 24N.

Weak low pressure over the north central and north east Gulf
accompanied by weak frontal boundaries will dissipate by early
Sun. High pressure will then build and prevail across the area
through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N74W. 10-30 kt
trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia. Clusters of broken low clouds with
scattered showers are over the E Caribbean E of 74W. Similar
showers are over Hispaniola, E Cuba, Jamaica, the NW Caribbean,
and E Honduras. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the Sea
with axis along 70W. Strong subsidence covers the entire
Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean will pulse to
near gale at night near the Coast of Colombia through the forecast
period. Otherwise, mainly moderate to locally fresh trades will
continue across the forecast waters through the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb low was located just east of Florida near 28N80W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the low. A 1025 mb high is
centered over the W Atlantic near 31N68W. A stationary front
extends from the central Atlantic near 31N51W to 25N64W to the N
Bahamas near 25N77W. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-32N
between 45W-52W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of
the front.

Over the W Atlantic, the low E of Florida near 28N80W will shift
NE of the area Sun. An associated cold front will shift across the
forecast waters through midweek. High pres will build in the wake
of the front through the end of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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