[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 04N29W to the coast of
Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 14W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layer ridging is seen across most of the Gulf. Meanwhile, an
upper level trough over the central U.S. is sliding eastward.
This is helping a cold front sweep across the southern Plains and
is beginning to approach the Gulf coast. In response to this
trough and front, the latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong southerly winds in the NW Gulf. Light to gentle winds are
seen elsewhere.

Moist southerly flow over the northwest Gulf will continue
through early Sunday. The cold front will move into the far NW
Gulf by Sunday afternoon, reach from near Apalachicola, Florida
to near Veracruz Mexico by early Monday, from near Tampa, Florida
to 22N90W and stationary to near 21N97W by early Monday evening
and from near Naples to along the northern Yucatan Peninsula then
stationary to near 21N97W early Tuesday. The front will become
stationary from along northwest Cuba to near 21N93W and to weak
low pressure near 22N97W by late Tuesday night. The low is
forecast to lift northward along the coast of Mexico Wednesday
and Wednesday night and along the Texas coast on Thursday and
Thursday night while it dissipates.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep layer ridging also continues to cover the Caribbean, which
is inhibiting deep convection. Most of the basin remains quiet
with isolated showers moving across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong winds along
the northern coast of Colombia, with fresh to strong trades across
the central Caribbean. Moderate trades are seen across the rest
of the basin.

High pressure north of the area will allow for fresh to strong
northeast to east winds over most of the central Caribbean through
Sunday night. These winds will diminish slightly early next week
as the high pressure shifts southeastward and weakens. Meanwhile,
long-period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic
passages and the tropical Atlantic waters off the Leeward and
Windward Islands through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is pushing across the central and eastern
Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front is moving eastward across
the eastern Atlantic. This boundary enters the forecast waters
near 31N27W and extends southwest to 21N34W to 18N56W. A shear
line continues from 18N56W to 20N66W to 22N75W. Scattered showers
are noted across the cold front from 23N-31N between 25W-31W.
Light showers are seen across the rest of the boundary and shear
line. In fact, some showers at the tail end of this shear line are
moving across the Bahamas and south Florida. High pressure
dominates the rest of the basin anchored by two 1024 mb highs, one
near 30N51W and the other near 30N60W.

To the north of the shear line and the southern half of the cold
front, the latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong NE
winds are seen. North of 24N, fresh to strong NW winds are behind
the cold front. Additionally, fresh southerly winds are ahead of
the cold front N of 26N.

High pressure ridging from Bermuda to the Carolinas will shift
southeast through early next week ahead of a cold front that will
move off the northeast Florida coast Monday night. The front will
continue to move southeastward through Tuesday, and extend from
near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Wednesday and
weaken as it becomes stationary over the far southern waters on
Thursday.

$$
AKR
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