[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Dec 28 17:18:59 CST 2019


AXNT20 KNHC 282318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 03N34W to N Brazil near
00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-06N between
11W-16W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N between
25W-29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is inland over central Texas moving SE. 15-25 kt S
flow is over the W Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are along the
Texas coast. A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near
31N69W. A ridge axis extends W from the high to SE Louisiana
along 30N. 10-15 kt SE return flow is over the E Gulf. Moistly
fair weather is over the E Gulf.

In the upper levels, a large trough is over the Midwest USA with
axis along 103W with broken to overcast high clouds. A large
ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 86W and strong
subsidence.

The cold front will move into the far NW Gulf by Sun afternoon,
reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to near Veracruz Mexico by
early Mon, from near Tampa, Florida to 22N90W and stationary to
near 21N97W by early Mon evening and from near Naples to along the
northern Yucatan Peninsula then stationary to near 21N97W early
Tue. The front will become stationary from along northwest Cuba to
near 21N93W and to weak low pressure near 22N97W by late Tue
night. The low is forecast to lift northward along the coast of
Mexico Wed and Wed night and along the Texas coast on Thu and Thu
night while it dissipates.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated moderate convection is over E Panama and N Colombia.
Similar convection is along the coast of Nicaragua from 12N-14N
between 81W-83W. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea has mostly
fair weather. Tradewinds are 10-20 kt with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia.

In the upper levels a ridge is over the W Caribbean and Central
America. Zonal flow is over the E Caribbean. Strong subsidence
covers the entire Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will allow for fresh to strong
northeast to east winds over most of the central Caribbean
through Sun night. These winds will diminish slightly early next
week as the high pressure shifts southeastward and weakens.
Meanwhile, long-period north swell will propagate through the
Atlantic passages and the tropical Atlantic waters off the Leeward
and Windward Islands through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 31N69W. A 1023 mb high
is over the central Atlantic near 31N56W. A cold front is over
the E Atlantic from 31N29W to 21N26W to 19N50W 19N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm E of the front N of 21N.

Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over
the E Atlantic N of 15N between 25W-60W supporting the surface
front.

Surface high pressure ridging over the W Atlantic will shift
southeast through early next week ahead of a cold front that will
move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night. The front will
continue to move southeastward through Tue, and extend from near
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Wed and become
stationary over the far southern waters and weaken on Thu.

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net




More information about the Tropical mailing list