[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
546 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A 1003 mb surface low is centered near 33N42W. A cold front
extends from the low to 28N52W, then becomes stationary to 27N61W.
Gale-force winds are occurring in the eastern semicircle of the
low, mainly north of 28N, with seas ranging between 10-17 ft. The
low is expected to move east through tonight, and the gale winds
will follow the low/front. Please refer to the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near
07N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ extends from 06N14W to 01N47W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm either side
of the ITCZ between 20W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb surface high is over the Carolinas extending southwest
across the basin. Mid-to-upper level ridging covers the eastern
and central Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed from
29N90W to 25N89W, with little to no precipitation noted. The
latest ASCAT pass shows moderate E winds east of the surface
trough, while gentle anticyclonic winds prevail west of the
trough.

The surface ridge will reside N of the Gulf through Fri night. The
surface trough will drift W across the central and western Gulf
tonight through Fri. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Sat
night and Sun, and extend from northern Florida to southern Mexico
on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from 18N69W to 14N75W. Scattered
showers are along the front. In the far SW Caribbean, the east
Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered showers from 12N
south between 80W-82W, including over western Panama and far SE
Costa Rica. The latest ASCAT pass depicts gentle to moderate winds
across the basin.

The stationary front will dissipate today. Gentle to moderate northerly
winds will prevail over the western Caribbean through Fri night.
Winds and seas will increase in the central Caribbean on Fri as
high pressure builds north of area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the central Atlantic.

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 23N79W to
24N66W. A 1008 mb occluded low is centered near 26N64W. The
occluded front extends from the low to 27N75W. A cold front
extends from that point to 21N62W to 19N68W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along the cold front affecting Puerto Rico and
adjacent waters at this time. The eastern portion of this
low/frontal system is discussed in the Special Features section
above. Farther E, a 1029 mb surface high is near 42N07W, with a
surface ridge axis extending west-southwestward from the high to
the Lesser Antilles.

High pressure building over the western Atlantic will
support fresh to strong NE to E winds across southern waters
through Sat. Fresh southerly winds are expected east of Florida
Sat night through Sun night.

$$

ERA
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