[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1229 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A 1005 mb surface low is centered near 32N46W. A cold front
extends from the low to a 1008 mb surface low near 27N62W then to
20N69W. Gale-force winds are occurring in the eastern semicircle
of the first low, mainly north of 29N, with seas ranging between
12-14 ft. Gale winds will continue in the eastern and southern
quadrants of the low and east of the cold front, north of 28N, as
the system moves eastward during the next 24 hours. Winds will
decrease to below gale force south of 32N by late Thursday
afternoon. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near
07N12W to 06N13W. The ITCZ extends from 06N13W to 04N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm either side
of the ITCZ between 22W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb surface high is over the Carolinas extending southwest
across the basin. Mid-upper level ridging covers the eastern and
central Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed from 28N89W
to 24N87W, with little to no precipitation noted. The latest
ASCAT pass shows moderate E winds east of the surface trough.
Gentle anticyclonic winds prevail west of the surface trough.

The surface ridge will reside N of the Gulf through Fri night. The
surface trough will drift W across the central and western Gulf
tonight through Fri. A cold front entering the NW Gulf Sat night
and Sun will usher in moderate fresh to strong N to NE winds and
building seas. A developing surface trough will generate strong
winds over the NW Gulf on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from Haiti near 18N72W to 16N76W.
Scattered showers are along the front. In the far SW Caribbean,
the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered showers
from 12N south between 75W-82W, including over western Panama and
far SE Costa Rica. The latest ASCAT pass depicts gentle to
moderate winds across the basin.

The stationary front will dissipate tonight. Fresh N winds are
expected along the coast of Nicaragua tonight. Winds and seas will
diminish across the central Caribbean Thu, then increase again on
Fri as high pressure builds N of area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the central Atlantic.

A 1007 mb surface low is centered near 25N67W. A surface trough
extends westward from the low to Northern Bahamas, with little to
no shower activity. An occluded front extends from this low to a
1008 mb low near 27N62W. This second low is described above in
the Special Features section. Farther E, a 1027 mb surface high
is near 36N18W, with a surface ridge axis extending west-
southwestward from the high to the Lesser Antilles.

The low pressure system well N of Puerto Rico will move to the E
of the forecast waters Thu. The pressure gradient between the low
and high pres building over the western Atlc will support fresh to
strong NE to E winds mainly S of 28N through Sat.

$$

ERA
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