[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231151
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS...

The Atlantic Ocean forecast consists of: a low pressure center and
a cold front, approaching from the Georgia coast. Expect gale-
force SE winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet,
N of 29N W of 75W. The gale-force wind conditions to are forecast
to continue for the next 48 hours or so, with the low pressure
center and front.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC; and the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or
go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is along 04N/05N, from 08W in southern Liberia
eastward. The ITCZ continues from 05N08W, to 03N20W, 02N31W, to
02N44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 75 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 35W and
41W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from the ITCZ northward to 06N
from 50W eastward. Rainshowers are possible from the monsoon
trough/ITCZ southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The ARKANSAS-LOUISIANA-TEXAS to Mexico upper level trough, from
the last 24 hours, now is supporting the current cold front that
passes through north central Florida, to the Florida west coast
near 27.5N82.5W, across NW Cuba, to 20N84W in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, across central Belize, and into northern Guatemala.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence spans nearly the entire Gulf
of Mexico, except for the extreme SE corner of the area. The drier
air is pushing the multilayered moisture across Florida and into
the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
is from 27N northward from 75W westward. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is in the Atlantic Ocean from 24N to 27N
between 74W and Florida. Broken to overcast multilayered moisture
also covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward between 63W and
75W.

The current cold front will exit the eastern Gulf of Mexico by
early this afternoon. High pressure, that builds across the area
on Tuesday, will be confined to mainly the northern Gulf waters
from Wednesday through Friday night, as a surface trough moves
westward in the central Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle winds can
be expected across the area from late Tuesday through much of
Thursday. The winds become east at fresh speeds in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. The winds will shift to east to
southeast in direction on Friday. For the far western Gulf of
Mexico: winds become southeast to south at moderate to fresh
speeds on Friday, in response to low pressure that forms to the
west of the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb shows a
trough in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The current cold
front, from the Gulf of Mexico southward, passes through the
Florida west coast near 27.5N82.5W, across NW Cuba, to 20N84W in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, across central Belize, and
into northern Guatemala. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong covers the area that is to the west of the line
from SE Cuba to the easternmost parts of coastal Honduras.

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that an inverted
trough is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Broad surface low
pressure covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon
trough is along 09N/10N, between 75W in Colombia and beyond
southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong, in clusters, from 14N southward from 75W
westward.

The current cold front will reach from central Cuba to northeast
Honduras by early this evening; from eastern Cuba to near the
Nicaragua and Costa Rica border early on Tuesday; then become
stationary and weaken from the Windward Passage to Providencia
Island through Wednesday; and dissipate by late Wednesday night.
Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow behind the
front. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will weaken and shift
eastward, from Wednesday through Friday. This will allow for trade
winds throughout to be mainly in the gentle to moderate range
from Wednesday through Friday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is along 32N32W to 27N40W, 24N50W, 23N60W,
23N70W, and to 24N75W near the Bahamas. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea and parts of the Atlantic
Ocean from 26N to 30N between 44W and 54W, and from 09N to 18N
between 38W and 73W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated
strong within 125 nm on either side of the line from 33N35W to
30N39W to 27N41W to 24N45W.

A low pressure center will move eastward, from southern Georgia
to the Georgia coast, by early this afternoon, with a trailing
cold front to just offshore SE Florida and to western Cuba. The
front will reach from near 31N76W to 26N76W to central Cuba
tonight; from the low pressure near 31N73W early on Tuesday to
26N74W and to east central Cuba; from the low pressure near
30N70W to eastern Cuba on Tuesday evening; from the low pressure
near 28N67W early on Wednesday to the Dominican Republic. The
front will reach the far southeast waters by late Wednesday
afternoon, as it weakens, and as the low pressure center reaches
near 27N66W. Fresh northeast to east winds are expected across the
central waters from late Thursday through Friday night.

$$
MT
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