[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS...

The Atlantic Ocean forecast consists of: a low pressure center and
a cold front, approaching from the west. Expect gale-force SE
winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 15 feet, WITHIN 30N79W
TO 30N80.5W TO 31N81W TO 31N79W TO 30N79W. The gale-force wind
conditions to are forecast to continue for the next 30 hours or
so, with the front.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC; and the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or
go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W, to 03N25W,
02N43W, to 01N50W near the coast of Brazil. Precipitation:
Isolated moderate to locally strong from the ITCZ to 06N between
17W and 46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N to
06N between 10W and 12W, and within 30 nm to the south of the ITCZ
between 34W and 38W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere to the south
of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The ARKANSAS-LOUISIANA-TEXAS to Mexico upper level trough, from
the last 24 hours, now is supporting the current 1009 mb Florida
Panhandle low pressure center, and the cold front that stretches
from the 1009 mb low center to the Yucatan Peninsula. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds cover the Gulf of Mexico to the east
of the line that runs from 21N97W at the coast of Mexico, to
23N90W, to the westernmost part of the Florida Panhandle.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong from the Straits of Florida northward between 75W in the
Atlantic Ocean and the cold front that is in the Gulf of Mexico,
covering the entire state of Florida.

The current 1009 mb low pressure center will move to SE Georgia
by Monday morning/tomorrow morning. The current cold front
will pass to the E of the Gulf of Mexico by Monday
morning/tomorrow morning also. Strong winds will linger in the NE
Gulf of Mexico through Monday night/tomorrow night, as a surface
trough that is on the W side of the 1009 mb low pressure center
lingers in the NE Gulf. A ridge will build into the Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday and Wednesday. The ridge will promote light to gentle
winds in the Gulf of Mexico during this time frame.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that an inverted
trough is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Broad surface low
pressure covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon
trough is along 08N/09N, between 74W in Colombia and 83W in the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong, in clusters, from 12N
southward from 75W westward.

The GFS model for 250 mb/for 500 mb/for 700 mb shows a trough in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The southernmost part of the
Gulf of Mexico cold front is in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the
area that is to the west of the line from Cuba near 21N78W, to the
easternmost parts of coastal Honduras.

The current Gulf of Mexico cold front will push SE from the
Yucatan Channel into the far NW Caribbean Sea tonight. The front
will reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Monday
morning/tomorrow morning; from eastern Cuba to SE Nicaragua early
on Tuesday; and then stall and weaken from the Windward Passage
to Providencia Island through mid-week. Fresh to strong winds
will follow the front in the western Caribbean Sea. The cold
front and its parent low pressure center will shift into the
western Atlantic Ocean, N of the area, displacing the subtropical
ridge and allowing moderate trade winds during the second half of
this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N32W to 29N38W. The front becomes
stationary from 29N38W, to 24N50W, 23N60W, 23N70W, and to 24N74W
near the Bahamas. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers
the Caribbean Sea and parts of the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 18N
between 40W and 73W. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate
and locally strong to isolated strong, from the frontal boundary
northward.

Deepening low pressure, currently just NW of Apalachicola in
Florida, will move to the Georgia coast by Monday morning/tomorrow
morning. A cold front, with the deepening low pressure center,
will move off the east coast of Florida. SE winds will increase
to gale-force by late today off NE Florida, in advance of the
approaching low pressure center and cold front. The cold front
will continue to sweep eastward, reaching from 31N72W to western
Cuba by early Tuesday, as the low slowly moves toward 31N76W.
It is possible that the low pressure center may bring more gale-
force winds to the waters E of Jacksonville on Tuesday evening,
before moving E to 29N65W early on Wednesday, with the front
extending to the Windward Passage. The wind speeds and the sea
heights are forecast to diminish across the region after late
Wednesday, as the low and front move more to the east and weaken.

$$
MT
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