[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1241 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

Gale-force wind warnings have been published for two areas in the
Gulf of Mexico, and for one area in the Atlantic Ocean.

Area number one in the Gulf of Mexico is: a warm front from
30N85W to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 27.5N87W,
and then a cold front to 21N87.5W. Expect gale-force E-to-SE
winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet, within
27N86W TO 27N87W TO 29N87W TO 29N86W TO 27N86W. These conditions
will last for the next 18 hours or so.

Area number two in the Gulf of Mexico is: NW gale-force winds,
and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, within 19N94W TO
18N94W TO 19N96W TO 21N97W TO 21N96W TO 19N94W.

The 18-hour Atlantic Ocean forecast consists of: a cold front
along 31N37W 24N50W, then a weakening stationary front from 24N50W
to 22N61W. Expect E-to-SE gale-force winds, and sea heights
ranging from 11 feet to 13 feet, within 30N78W TO 30N80W TO 31N80W
TO 31N79W TO 30N78W.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC; and the latest OFFSHORE FORECASTS: MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC,
or MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the
NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone
near 09N13W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W, to 04N20W,
04N47W, to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Precipitation:
scattered strong within 75 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 46W
and 48W. Isolated moderate to locally strong within 100 nm to the
north of the ITCZ, and within 60 nm to the south of the ITCZ.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from the monsoon trough/ITCZ
southward from 20W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from a NE Texas cyclonic
circulation center to an interior Mexico 23N103W cyclonic
circulation center. A 1014 mb low pressure center is near
27N87W. A warm front extends from the 1014 mb low pressure center
to the Florida Big Bend. A cold front extends from the low
pressure center to the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Upper level SW wind
flow, that spans the entire Gulf of Mexico, is pushing high level
moisture into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 22N to 30N between the west coast
of Florida and 88W.

The current 1014 mb low pressure center will deepen as its moves
NE toward Florida and S Georgia. Gale-force winds are expected
in the NE Gulf through Sunday morning, as the low approaches the
Florida Big Bend. The cold front, that is trailing the 1014 mb low
pressure center, will sweep across the central and eastern
sections of the Gulf of Mexico, through late Sunday. Strong NW
winds will follow the front. Gale-force winds also are expected
near Veracruz tonight and Sunday. The wind speeds will diminish
gradually from Monday through Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 700 mb shows that an inverted trough is in the
SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Broad surface low pressure covers
the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is within 60 nm of the coast from the western
half of Panama to the central coast of Nicaragua.

The GFS model for 250 mb and for 500 mb shows a trough from the
western half of Honduras to the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong covers the coastal waters of
Central America from 14N northward from 80W westward.

High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds and high seas in the central and eastern sections of the
Caribbean Sea, and in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean, through
Sunday night. The wind speeds near the coast of Colombia will
pulse to near gale-force at night through Sunday night. A cold
front will cross the Yucatan Channel late on Sunday, and then
weaken on Monday, as it enters the NW Caribbean Sea. Strong N
winds will follow the front along the E coast of Nicaragua on
Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N44W to 30N47W. A stationary front
continues from 30N47W to 24N60W 22N70W, and to the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and Great Inagua Island. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea and parts of the Atlantic
Ocean from 13N to 23N between 53W and 75W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate within 240 nm to the E/SE of the cold front from 26N
northward.

The current stationary front will weaken tonight. High pressure N
of the front will support strong NE to E winds in the waters N of
22N tonight. The current 1014 mb low pressure center will enter
the Atlantic Ocean near 31N on Monday night. Gale-force winds are
expected E of northern Florida on Sunday night, as the low
pressure center deepens. The low pressure center will shift E
along 30N and cross 65W by Wednesday night. A trailing cold front
will move across the area, from Monday through Tuesday night,
followed by strong winds and building seas.

$$
MT
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