[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1014 mb low is over the north-central Gulf of Mexico near
27N88W. This low should strengthen while it moves northeastward
toward the Florida Big Bend region. Gale force winds are expected
over the NE Gulf waters starting at 22/0000 UTC, and seas will
range from 8-12 ft. These gale-force winds will last through
Sunday morning. For more details see the Gulf of Mexico section
below and the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

Another area of NW gale force winds is expected in the SW Bay of
Campeche around 22/0000 UTC. Seas will range from 8-10 ft in NE
swell. These gale-force winds will continue through early Monday
morning. For more details see the Gulf of Mexico section below and
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

The Gulf low will move to the W Atlantic waters Mon. Gale-force E
to SE winds are expected over the Atlantic N of 27N and W of 78W
by Sun evening 22/1800 UTC. Seas will build to 14 ft as the gale
develops. For more details see the Atlantic section below and the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of western Africa
near 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
04N40W to South America near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 03N-06N between 42W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb low is over the north-central Gulf of Mexico near
27N88W. A cold front extends south form the low to the Yucatan
Peninsula near 21N88W. A warm front extends north-east from the
low to N Florida near 31N84W. Scattered moderate convection is
over the E Gulf of Mexico N of 24N and E of 88W. Two gale areas
are to start shortly. See above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough over the western Caribbean, extending from
19N87W to 14N83W, is helping to support scattered moderate
convection west of 80W. Dry air and subsidence is preventing deep
convection over the remainder of the Caribbean basin today.

High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades
and high seas over the central and eastern Caribbean as well as
tropical Atlantic waters through Sun night. Winds near the coast
of Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night through Sun
night. A cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel late Sun, then
weaken Mon as it enters the NW Caribbean. Strong N winds will
follow the front along the E coast of Nicaragua on Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the central Atlantic near 31N48W and
continues southwestward to 21N74W. Scattered showers are within
120 nm of the front. A prefrontal trough extends from 30N46W to
22N55W. A 1025 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near
30N21W.

The stationary front will weaken tonight. Gale force winds are
expected over the W Atlantic Sun evening. See above. A low will
shift E along 30N and cross 65W by Wed night. Another 1007 mb low
will form over the W Atlantic near 27N73W Wed.

$$ Formosa
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