[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1251 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A non-tropical area of low pressure has developed over the north-
central Gulf of Mexico and as of 1500 UTC was located near 26N89W.
This low should strengthen while it moves northeastward toward
the Florida Big Bend region later in the weekend. Gale force winds
are expected over the NE Gulf waters starting at 22/0000 UTC, and
seas will range from 8-12 ft over the NE Gulf during the event.
These gale-force winds will last through Sunday morning. For more
details see the Gulf of Mexico section below and the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

Another area of NW gale force winds is expected to develop in the
SW Bay of Campeche Sunday morning around 22/1200 UTC. Seas will
range from 8-10 ft in NE swell. These gale-force winds will
continue through early Monday morning. For more details see the
Gulf of Mexico section below and the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

The Gulf low will move over the SW Atlantic waters early next
week. Gale-force E to SE winds are expected to develop ahead of
the approaching low N of 22N and W of 55W by Monday morning at
1200 UTC. Seas will build to 12 to 16 ft as the gales develop.
For more details see the Atlantic section below and the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of western Africa
near 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
04N30W to 03N49W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen
along and within 150 n mi of the ITCZ between 26W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a strong surface high over the
eastern U.S. and developing low pressure over the central Gulf is
producing fresh to strong northeasterly to easterly winds across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As of 1500 UTC, a warm front extends
from 30N83W to 28N90W, and then transitions to a surface trough
that continues southward to a 1018 mb low near 26N89W to 22N88W.
Strong to near-gale-force winds are north of the front. Scattered
moderate convection with thunderstorms are east of the trough to
84W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds cover the western Gulf.

Low pressure will deepen as its moves NE across N Florida and S
Georgia. Gale force winds are expected over the NE Gulf tonight as
the low approaches the Florida Big Bend. A cold front trailing
the low will sweep across the central and eastern Gulf through
late Sun. Strong NW winds will follow the front, with gale force
winds expected off the coast of Veracruz late tonight. Winds will
gradually diminish Mon through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough over the western Caribbean, extending from
19N87W to 14N83W, is helping to support scattered moderate
convection west of 82W. Dry air and subsidence is preventing deep
convection over the remainder of the Caribbean basin today. Fresh
to strong northeast winds prevail north of the Colombia coast to
16N. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover the remainder of the
central Caribbean, while mainly moderate winds cover the eastern
and western Caribbean.

High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades
and large seas over the central and eastern Caribbean as well as
tropical Atlantic waters through Sun night. Winds near the coast
of Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night through Sun. A
cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel late Sun, then weaken
Mon as it enters the NW Caribbean. Strong N winds will follow the
front along the E coast of Nicaragua on Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong high pressure is centered over the northeastern United
States while a stationary front extends into the central Atlantic
near 31N46W and continues southwestward to 21N74W. Between these
two features, fresh to strong northeasterly winds are occurring
across much of the SW northern Atlantic. High pressure of 1025 mb
centered near 29N24W dominates the reminder of the central and
eastern Atlantic.

The stationary front extending from 24N65W to the southern
Bahamas will weaken today. High pressure N of the front will
support strong NE to E winds over the waters N of 22N through
tonight. Low pressure is expected to develop over the NE Gulf of
Mexico by later this afternoon, then enter the Atlc near 31N Mon
night. Gale force winds are expected E of northern Florida Sun
night as the low deepens. The low will shift east of the area
through mid week. A trailing cold front will move across the area
Mon through Tue night, followed by strong winds and building seas.

$$
Latto
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