[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1140 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-force wind warnings have been published for two areas in the
Gulf of Mexico, and for one area in the Atlantic Ocean.

Area number one in the Gulf of Mexico is: an 18-hour forecast,
that consists of a surface trough along 22N87W to a 1013 mb low
pressure center that is near 27N87W, to 29N86W. Expect SE-to-S
gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet,
within 26N85W TO 26N87W TO 28N87W TO 28N86W TO 26N85W.

Area number two in the Gulf of Mexico is: a 24-hour forecast,
that consists of NW gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from
8 feet to 11 feet, within 18N94W TO 19N96W TO 20N96W TO 21N96W TO
20N95W TO 18N94W.

The 36-hour Atlantic Ocean forecast consists of: a cold front
along 31N37W 25N47W. Expect E-to-SE gale-force winds, and sea
heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, within 27N69W TO 27N80W TO
31N81W TO 31N76W TO 29N69W TO 27N69W

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC; and the latest OFFSHORE FORECASTS: MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC,
or MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the
NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 09N17W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, to 03N23W,
02N37W, to the Equator along 41W. Precipitation: Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 06N between 30W and 47W.
Isolated moderate from 06N southward from 30W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

One surface trough is in the central Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong from 23N to 26N from 87W eastward into the Straits of
Florida. A second surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, with
a ridge along 85W/86W. Upper level moisture is moving from
interior sections of Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico.

Fresh to strong E winds prevail east of the central Gulf of Mexico
surface trough. Low pressure will develop along this trough
today, then deepen as its moves NE across N Florida and S Georgia.
Gale force winds are expected in the NE Gulf tonight as the low
approaches the Florida Big Bend. A cold front trailing from the
low pressure center will sweep across the central and eastern
sections of the Gulf today and tomorrow. Strong NW winds will
follow the front, with gale force winds expected off the coast of
Veracruz late tonight. Winds will diminish gradually from Monday
through Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 700 mb shows a trough that extends from the
coast of Honduras to NW Cuba. A surface trough curves from the
coastal waters of SE Nicaragua, into the coastal waters of
Honduras, to NE Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the north and east of the
surface trough.

The GFS model from the surface to at least 700 mb shows broad low
pressure/cyclonic wind flow in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong is within 120 nm of the coast of Central America from the
western half of Panama to 20N off the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. Isolated moderate is from 20N northward from
80W westward.

High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds and large seas in the central and eastern
sections of the Caribbean Sea, and in the Tropical N Atlantic
Ocean, through Sunday night. Winds near the coast of Colombia
will pulse to near gale force at night through Sunday. A cold
front will cross the Yucatan Channel late Sun, then weaken on
Monday, as it enters the NW Caribbean Sea. Strong N winds will
follow the front along the E coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N58W, to 26N63W, to 21N70W,
into the Windward Passage. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is from 28N to 33N between 55W and 63W, and within 120 nm on
either side of 24N64W 21N70W 19N76W in the Windward Passage.

A stationary front is within 320 nm to the east of the upper
level trough. The front is along 31N45W 26N60W 23N70W, into SE
Cuba. Precipitation: upper level SE wind flow is pushing
multilayered broken to overcast clouds toward the northeast. The
multilayered clouds are within 120 nm on either side of the line
that passes through 32N50W to 24N60W.

The current stationary front will weaken today. High pressure N
of the front will support strong NE to E winds in the waters N of
23N through tonight. Low pressure is expected to develop in the
NE Gulf of Mexico later today, then enter the Atlc near 31N Mon
night. Gale force winds are expected E of northern Florida Sun
night as the low deepens. A trailing cold front will move across
the area Mon through Tue night, followed by strong winds and
building seas.

$$
MT
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