[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191152
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 AM EST Thu Dec 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point west to 00N45W in
NE Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S-05N
between 17W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the section above for details on the Gale Warning in the
Gulf of Mexico.

The cold front that previously moved across the basin has exited
the area leaving fresh to strong with a few gusts up to gale force
winds in the Bay of Campeche and the eastern Gulf. A 1030 mb high
pressure centered over Texas is in control across the basin.

The high pressure over Texas and Louisiana is supporting strong
to near gale force N to NE winds over most of the basin. Winds and
seas will gradually diminish today as the high shifts northeastward.
Strong NE to E winds will continue in the Straits of Florida
through Fri night. A low pressure area is expected to develop from
a surface trough over the eastern Gulf by early Sat and move
across northern Florida this weekend. Gale force winds are
possible in the NE Gulf Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across the western Caribbean from 21N79W to
15N85W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and ahead of
the front from 15N85W to 21N80W. Scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms are noted in the SW Caribbean associated to the
Pacific monsoon trough. Upper-level ridging extends across the
eastern Caribbean, inhibiting deep convection. Low-topped showers
can be seen moving across the area. Latest scatterometer data
depicts fresh easterly trades north of Colombia with fresh to
strong winds in the eastern and central Caribbean. Light winds are
east of the front, with fresh to strong winds prevail behind the
front.

A strong cold front across the NW Caribbean from central Cuba to
northern Honduras is supporting strong to near gale force northerly
winds west of the front from the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of
Honduras. The front will gradually stall and weaken through
tonight. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to
strong trades and high seas in the tropical north Atlantic and
most of the Caribbean through Sun.

The strong frontal northerlies will bring heavy rainfall across
northwest Honduras to Puerto Barrios in central Guatemala. The
heaviest rainfall will occur through today with maxima of 6-8
inches. Due to strong topographical forcing, localized maxima is
expected to be between 10-12 inches.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front continues pressing south and east in the western
Atlantic, from 31N67W to 22N78W. Scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms are seen within 100 nm of the front. Another cold
front enters the central Atlantic near 31N18W and stretches
westward to 24N40W and weakens to a dissipating stationary front
to 28N49W. Low-topped showers are seen within 90 nm of these
feature. High pressure dominates the rest of the basin anchored by
a 1025 mb high near 27N40W. The latest scatterometer data depicts
strong northerly winds behind the cold front in the western
Atlantic, with moderate to fresh south to southwest winds ahead of
the front. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are seen
across the Atlantic north of the ITCZ from 04N to 20N.

The strong cold front near the Bahamas will reach from 26N65W to
the Windward Passage tonight. Strong NE winds and high seas are
expected across much of the area NW of the front, which will stall
and weaken through Fri night. A low pressure center is expected
to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sat, and move across
northern Florida on Sun. Gale force E to SE winds are possible
east of northern Florida Sun night and Mon as the low intensifies.

$$
MMT
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