[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 AM EST Thu Dec 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The cold front that was moving across the Gulf of Mexico has moved
away from the basin and enter the western Caribbean this evening.
Gale force winds continue to affect the southern Gulf waters in
two areas: over the Bay of Campeche S of 22N and W of 95W, and
in the Yucatan Channel S of 24N between 85W-95W. Scatterometer
data depicted these winds very well, and recent observations in
the NW Caribbean have reported gale-force winds. Seas will range
between 13-19 ft over the Bay of Campeche, and between 10-15 ft
over the Yucatan Channel. These conditions will continue through
tonight. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point west to 02S41W in NE
Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 350 nm on N
side of the ITCZ between 16W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the section above for details on the Gale Warning in the
Gulf of Mexico.

The cold front that previously moved across the basin has exited
the area this evening leaving strong to gale force winds in the
Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan Channel. High pressure behind the
front is covering most of the Gulf. Aside from the gale-force
wind areas, strong winds cover the eastern half of the Gulf
along the Florida Peninsula in addition to the SW Gulf with
moderate to fresh off the SE Texas coast.

A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the
area and the earlier strong cold front presently over the NW
Caribbean Sea is resulting in strong to minimal gale force
northerly winds and large seas over much of the eastern, central
and SW Gulf, including the vicinity of the Yucatan Channel. These
conditions will slowly subside through Thu. Strong northeast to
east winds will continue in the Straits of Florida, after the
frontal passage, through Fri. Low pressure is expected to develop
in the N central Gulf on Friday night, and move across northern
Florida during the weekend. Gale force winds and hazardous marine
conditions are possible in the NE Gulf and eastern part of the
central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across the western Caribbean from 21N81W to
15N86W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and ahead of
the front from the Gulf of Honduras north to west Cuba between
82W-86W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are noted
in the SW Caribbean associated to the Pacific monsoon trough.
Upper-level ridging extends across the eastern Caribbean, inhibiting
deep convection. Low-topped showers can be seen moving across the
area. Latest scatterometer data depicts strong trades north of
Colombia with fresh to strong winds in the eastern and central
Caribbean. Light winds are east of the front, with fresh to
strong winds prevail behind the front.

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds and building seas from the tropical north Atlantic
westward, to the south central Caribbean through Sat. A strong
cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel this afternoon with
gale force northerly winds immediately behind it through the
Yucatan Channel through this evening. The front will stall and
weaken from central Cuba to Honduras by Thursday night. Fresh to
strong northerly winds will accompany the front across the NW
Caribbean Sea.

The strong frontal northerlies will bring heavy rainfall across
northwest Honduras to Puerto Barrios in central Guatemala. The
heaviest rainfall will occur through Thursday with maxima of 6-8
inches. Due to strong topographical forcing, localized maxima is
expected to be between 10-12 inches.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front continues pressing south and east in the western
Atlantic, from 31N71W to 23N79W. Scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms are seen within 100 nm of the front. Another cold
front enters the central Atlantic near 31N19W and stretches
westward to a 1020 low near 26N43W and continues as a stationary
front to 28N49W. Low-topped showers are seen within 90 nm of
these feature. High pressure dominates the rest of the basin
anchored by a 1025 mb high near 28N42W. The latest scatterometer
data depicts strong northerly winds behind the cold front in the
western Atlantic, with moderate to fresh south to southwest winds
ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are
seen across the Atlantic north of the ITCZ from 04N to 20N.

A strong cold front extending from near 31N72W to the central
Bahamas and to central Cuba will each from near 31N69W to eastern
Cuba late tonight, from near 31N64W to eastern Cuba early Thu and
from near 26N65W to across the southeastern Bahamas and to near he
Windward Passage on Thu night. Strong northerly winds and
building seas are expected across much of the forecast waters
following the frontal passage. The front will stall gradually, and
weaken through Fri night. It is possible that fresh to strong
easterly winds may develop to the east of Florida during the
upcoming weekend. A low pressure center is forecast to develop in
the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and move across northern Florida Sun
into Mon.

$$
MMT
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