[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1251 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 06N11W to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 02N33W,
and to the Equator along 42W. Precipitation: Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong are from 08N southward from
47W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front passes through Florida, from 27N80W on the eastern
coast of the state, just to the south of Lake Okeechobee, into
the central Gulf of Mexico, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that
is near 25N93W, curving southward to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 24N northward from 93W eastward.

A complex weather pattern exists in the Gulf of Mexico. Two
weak areas of low pressure and two stationary fronts, are drapped
from NE to SW. The lows and fronts will merge, from tonight into
early Friday, shifting to the E of the basin during this weekend.
High pressure, that is to the E of the area, will allow for
southerly return flow to set up by the end of the weekend. A
strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Monday
night, moving across the basin through Tuesday night. Fresh to
near gale force winds will follow the front, except gale force
possible in the W central and SW Gulf on Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 22N63W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to 14N66W in the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 63W/64W
from 10N at the coast of Venezuela to 20N. Precipitation:
Isolated moderate within 420 nm to the east of the surface trough,
and within 500 nm to the west of the surface trough. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea on the western
side of the trough, and elsewhere from 11N northward from 87W
eastward.

Broad surface low pressure covers the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. The monsoon trough is within 45 nm of the southern coast of
Panama, in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Satellite data and the GFS
forecast for 250 mb show upper level anticyclonic wind flow in the
SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model forecasts for 500
mb and for 700 mb show NE wind flow in the same area.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 11N southward from
78W westward.

The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish across the
region, gradually, through Friday afternoon, as high pressure in
the central Atlantic Ocean shifts eastward. The trade winds in the
central and eastern Caribbean Sea will increase early next week.
Fresh trade winds and moderate N to NE swell are expected in the
Tropical N Atlantic Ocean during the upcoming weekend, increasing
early next week. Scattered to numerous rainshowers and
thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds, may impact the NE
Caribbean Sea and the northern Tropical N Atlantic Ocean through
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda, to
31N69W, and beyond the Florida east coast along 27N.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong to the
N and NW of the line that passes through 32N62W, to 29N70W, and to
28N80W.

An upper level trough extends from a 34N31W cyclonic circulation
center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near
27N52W, to 22N63W, and eventually to 14N66W in the Caribbean Sea.
A surface trough is along 31N40W to 28N45W and 25N48W. 27N67W to
23N68W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 28N northward between 30W and 40W, and from 18N to 30N
between 43W and 53W.

A surface trough is along 20N46W 17N49W 12N51W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N to 20N between 30W
and 54W.

The current stationary front will weaken to a trough on Friday.
Fresh to strong NE winds will continue N of the front through
early Friday. Southerly winds will increase on Friday night and
Saturday, in advance of a weak cold front that is expected to
move W across the northern waters. It is possible that a stronger
cold front may move into the NW part of the area, off NE Florida,
on Tuesday night.

$$
MT
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