[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N41W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 140 nm on
either sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 14W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 12/2100 UTC, a warm front extends from a 1018 mb low near
29N90W to north-central Florida near 29N83W. A stationary front
extends south of the 1018 mb low to southern Mexico near 18N37W
with a 1014 mb low along this front near 24N94W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are noted particularly near the 1018 mb low,
close to the Louisiana/Mississippi coast from 28N-30N between 85W-
89W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 25N-28N
between 84W-93W. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh easterly winds in the north-central Gulf with light to
gentle winds elsewhere.

The front will dissipate as it drifts northward through Friday.
Fresh southerly winds are expected in the western Gulf Sunday and
Monday. A strong cold front will reach the Texas coast Monday
night and the NW Gulf late Monday night followed by strong to
near gale force N winds, with gale force possible in the W central
and SW Gulf Tuesday and Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extends from the central Atlantic with base
reaching the northeast Caribbean. At the surface, a trough extends
across the Lesser Antilles from 11N62W to 19N61W with scattered
showers near this feature. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
covers the remainder of the basin which is inhibiting any deep
convection. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades across the basin.

Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the region through
Friday as high pressure in the central Atlantic shifts eastward.
Trades across the central Caribbean will increase early next week.
Fresh trades along with moderate N to NE swell are expected
across the Tropical N Atlantic waters this upcoming weekend.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong
gusty winds, may impact the NE Caribbean and northern Tropical N
Atlantic waters through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is draped across the western Atlantic from
31N69W to south-central Florida near 27N80W. Showers are along and
north of this front from 27N-31N between 75W-80W. A surface
trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 24N42W to 30N39W
with scattered moderate convection seen from 30N-34W between 34W-
41W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1039 mb high centered near 37N28W.

The stationary front will weaken to a trough on Friday. Fresh to
strong NE winds will continue N of the front through early Friday.
Southerly winds will increase Friday night and Saturday, ahead of
a weak cold front expected to move W across the northern waters.
A stronger cold front may move into the NW portion off NE Florida
Tuesday night.

$$
AKR
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