[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1227 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 07N12W
to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 03N40W. Scattered
showers are noted within 75 nm on either sides of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front passes through Florida entering the east Gulf
waters near 27N82W to 25N90W. The front becomes stationary from
that point to 18N93W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
winds north of the front, while light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Scattered showers are also noted along the front.

The frontal boundary will continue weakening then dissipate as it
drifts northward through Fri. Fresh southerly winds are expected
to develop in the western Gulf on Sun/Mon. The next strong cold
front will reach the Texas coast and the NW Gulf on Mon night,
followed by strong to near gale force north winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extends from the central Atlantic with base
reaching the northeast Caribbean. At the surface, a trough extends
across the Lesser Antilles from 19N61W to 09N61W with scattered
showers. A wind shift is evident in surface observations, and
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds over the northern
portion of the trough, mainly north of 17N and east of 68W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the remainder of the
basin, with moderate to fresh trades prevailing in this area.

Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the region through
Fri as high pressure in the central Atlantic shifts eastward.
Trades across the central Caribbean will increase early next week.
Fresh trades along with moderate north to northeast swell are
expected across the Tropical N Atlantic waters this upcoming
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through the west Atlantic near 31N69W to
27N80W. Scattered showers are noted along and north of the front.
To the east, a surface trough is analyzed from 30N67W to 27N71W.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1039 mb high centered near 38N28W.

The front will become stationary by early this afternoon, then
weaken to a trough on Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds will
continue north of the front through early Fri. Southerly winds
will increase Fri night and Sat, ahead of a weak cold front
expected to move west across the northern waters.

$$

ERA
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