[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121134
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1120 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 07N20W and 05N30W. The ITCZ continues from
05N30W to 03N34W and 02N38W. Precipitation: Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong are from 07N southward from
40W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front passes through Florida, about 40 nm to the north
of Lake Okeechobee, into the central Gulf of Mexico. The front is
stationary, from the central Gulf of Mexico, curving southward to
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong within 60 nm to 90 nm on
either side of the frontal boundary.

The current frontal boundary will stall later today, and then
dissipate as it drifts northward through Friday. Fresh southerly
winds are expected in the western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and
Monday. A strong cold front will reach the Texas coast on Monday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 22N63W
to 15N64W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate
and isolated to locally strong within 420 nm to the W and NW of
the line that passes through 22N50W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
16N60W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the
Caribbean Sea on the western side of the trough, and elsewhere
from 14N northward between 64W and 84W.

Broad surface low pressure covers the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. The monsoon trough is in the eastern Pacific Ocean, touching
the southern side of Panama near 07N81W. Satellite data and the
GFS forecast for 250 mb show upper level anticyclonic wind flow in
the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model forecasts for
500 mb and for 700 mb show NE wind flow in the same area.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 12N
southward from 78W westward.

The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish across the
region, gradually, through Friday, as high pressure in the central
Atlantic Ocean shifts eastward. Easterly winds will increase in the
central Caribbean Sea early next week. Fresh trade winds and
moderate N to NE swell are expected across the Tropical N Atlantic
Ocean during the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 32N71W, to
the Florida east coast along 28N. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of
the frontal boundary.

An upper level trough extends from a 33N38W cyclonic circulation
center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near
29N48W, to a third cyclonic circulation center that is near
25N59W, to 22N63W, and eventually to 15N64W in the Caribbean Sea.
A surface trough is along 31N66W 27N67W to 23N68W. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated to locally
strong within 420 nm to the W and NW of the line that passes
through 32N30W 26N40W 22N50W 16N60W. Rainshowers are possible also
within 210 nm on either side of the surface trough.

The current cold front will become stationary later today, and
then weaken gradually through Friday. Fresh to strong NE winds are
expected north of the front through early Friday. Southerly winds
will increase on Friday night and Saturday, in advance of a weak
cold front that is expected to move westward, across the northern
waters.

$$
MT
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