[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front is in the Gulf of Mexico from 30N86W to 26N93W to
20N96.5W. Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging
from 10 feet to 12 feet, within : 22N97W to 22.5N97.5W to
23.5N97.5W to 23.5N97W to 22N97W. The gale-force wind event will
last for the next 24 hour or so. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the
NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to
01N31W, 01N33W, crossing the Equator along 36W, to the coast of
Brazil near 03S43W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong to the south and southeast of the line 09N13W 06N30W
05N51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving through the Gulf of Mexico, from the
Florida Panhandle, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico at 20N along the coast of Mexico.
Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging
from 10 feet to 12 feet, within : 22N97W to 22.5N97.5W to
23.5N97.5W to 23.5N97W to 22N97W. The gale-force wind event will
last for the next 24 hour or so. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 75 nm to the E and SE of the
cold front from 24N to 28N. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
are elsewhere to the W and NW of the cold front.

The current cold front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to
the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday morning, and then stall from
Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche by Thursday morning. Gale-force
NW to N winds will prevail to the west of the front, along the
coast of Mexico, from tonight through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface low pressure covers the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. Satellite data and the GFS forecast for 250 mb show upper
level anticyclonic wind flow in the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. The GFS model forecasts show E-to-SE wind flow for 500 mb,
and NE wind flow for 700 mb, across the same area. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers are from 15N southward from 80W
westward.

An upper level trough starts in the Atlantic Ocean, near 24N55W,
and it continues to 20N61W, into the NE Caribbean Sea, to 18N64W,
and to 15N66W. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 17N
to 20N between 60W and 65W.

Rainshowers are possible in the easterly trade wind flow,
elsewhere, from 18N southward from 80W eastward.

Strong high pressure in the west central Atlantic Ocean will
dominate the Caribbean Sea through Wednesday. Expect: building
seas and fresh to strong winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean Sea sections, and in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean,
through the middle of the week. The wind speeds and the sea heights
will subside gradually, on Thursday and Friday, as the high
pressure that is to the N of the area shifts eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough starts in the Atlantic Ocean, near 24N55W,
and it continues to 20N61W, into the NE Caribbean Sea, to 18N64W,
and to 15N66W. A surface trough is along 30N61W to 21N64W.
Precipitation: Isolated moderate within 420 nm to the east of the
surface trough from 20N to 27N.

A cold front passes through 32N30W to 31N36W. A stationary front
continues from 31N36W to 30N46W and to 28N53W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate within 150 nm to the north of the frontal
boundary from 45W eastward.

Strong high pressure covers the west central Atlantic Ocean. The
ridge will retreat eastward. It will enable a cold front to move
off the southeast U.S.A. coast on Wednesday. The front will stall
from 30N70W to central Florida on Thursday morning, before
transitioning to a warm front on Friday.

$$
MT
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