[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
654 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

As of 10/2100 UTC, the cold front stretches across the Gulf from
the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W to a 1012 mb low near 26N95W to
the coast of Mexico near 22N97W. Behind the front, strong to gale
force NW to N winds are expected tonight by 0000 UTC, S of 23N
between 96W-92W. Seas will range between 8 to 11 ft. Expect this
gale force event to be ongoing until 12/0000 UTC. See the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 01N30W. The ITCZ continues from 01N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen within 100 nm of the monsoon trough between 14W-29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section in regards to the developing
gale event.

Isolated thunderstorms are seen near the front from 26N-29N
between 92W-94W. Scattered showers are also seen in the eastern
Gulf. Otherwise, ridging extends across the eastern Gulf. Latest
scatterometer data depicts depict fresh to strong southerly winds
in the Bay of Campeche, with gentle to moderate southerly winds in
the northern Gulf ahead of the front.

The cold front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay
of Campeche by Wednesday morning, then stall from Tampa Bay to
the Bay of Campeche by Thursday morning. Gale force NW to N winds
are expected west of the front along the coast of Mexico tonight
through Wednesday evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep ridging covers the Caribbean and is inhibiting deep
convection. Showers are seen in the SW Caribbean S of 13N between
78W-84W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen moving offshore of
Jamaica. Otherwise, low-topped showers are seen moving across the
Lesser Antilles into Puerto Rico. Latest scatterometer data
depicts strong trades north of Colombia, with fresh to strong
trades throughout the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to
moderate trades are seen in the NW Caribbean.

Strong high pressure in the west-central Atlantic will dominate
the region through Wed. Expect building seas and fresh to strong
winds across the central and eastern Caribbean and Tropical N
Atlantic waters through mid-week. Winds and seas will gradually
subside Thu and Fri as the high pressure N of the area shifts
eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the central Atlantic near 31N41W and
extends westward to 30N57W with a trough extending from that point
to 22N61W. Scattered showers are seen within 170 nm of the front.
Isolated thunderstorms are also seen within 20-200 nm of the
Leeward Islands. High pressure continues to dominate the eastern
Atlantic, anchored by a 1043 mb high near 41N41W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly winds across
the central Atlantic.

Strong high pressure in the west-central Atlantic will support a
large area of fresh easterly winds to the east of the Bahamas
through this evening. A cold front will move off the southeast
U.S. coast on Wednesday, extend from 30N70W to central Florida
Thursday morning and stall thereafter before transitioning to a
warm front on Friday.

$$
AKR
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