[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 06N11W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 03N35W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 03N-10N E of 24W and from 02N-05N between 31W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge centered over Mexico extends into the
western Gulf. At the surface, a 1019 mb low is seen in the eastern
Gulf near 29N85W with a cold front stretching south and west to
the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. A stationary front extends east
from the low to the Florida coast near 29N83W. Showers are seen
along the front and low. Surface high pressure is building behind
the front. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds
across the basin.

A weak cold front extending NE-SW across the Gulf will promote
benign marine conditions through the remainder of this weekend. A
strong cold front will push into the NW Gulf on Tuesday morning,
then extend from the Florida peninsula into the Bay of Campeche by
Wednesday afternoon. Minimal gale force N winds are possible west
of the front along the coast of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper level ridge over Mexico extends across most of the
Caribbean. There is an area of isolated thunderstorms along
Nicaragua, from 11N-17N between 81W-84W. Isolated thunderstorms
are also seen across Puerto Rico. The eastern Pacific monsoon
trough is enhancing convection across Colombia, Panama, and Costa
Rica, S of 10N between 75W-82W. The latest scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh winds in the western and central
Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere.

A weak Bermuda High to the north of the area will promote
generally moderate to fresh trade winds until early Monday. As a
stronger Bermuda High builds in Monday through Wednesday, winds
and seas will increase over the central and eastern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front over the central Atlantic enters the waters
near 31N51W to 21N69W. Scattered moderate convection is along this
front from 23N-31N between 49W-66W. A cold front enters the
western Atlantic waters near 31N76W and extends westward to the
Florida coast near 29N81W. A 1019 mb low is near 30N75W with a
trough stretching south of the low to near 27N74W. Light showers
are near these boundaries. A surface high extends across the
eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1031 mb high near 36N25W.

A weak cold front extending NE-SW across the Gulf will promote
benign marine conditions through the remainder of this weekend. A
strong cold front will push into the NW Gulf on Tuesday morning,
then extend from the Florida peninsula into the Bay of Campeche by
Wednesday afternoon. Minimal gale force N winds are possible west
of the front along the coast of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning.


$$
AKR
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