[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 06N10W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to 01N43W.
Scattered moderate convection extends from 00N-07N between 13W-
30W. Scattered shower activity is also seen about 180 nm SW of
the coast of Liberia.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans Mexico. A cold
front extends from a 1019 mb low pressure center near 29N84W
to 22N97W near Victoria, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are possible along the boundary. Ridge builds behind it
with a light to moderate NW flow as of the latest ASCAT imagery.

The weak cold front across the Gulf is promoting benign marine
conditions through the remainder of this weekend. A strong cold
front will push into the NW Gulf on Tue morning, then extend from
the Florida peninsula into the Bay of Campeche by Wed afternoon.
Minimal gale force N winds are possible west of the front along
the coast of Mexico Tue night and Wed morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of convergence in the SW Caribbean Sea along the coast
Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica is allowing for scattered
moderate isolated strong convection to develop from 09N-16N
between 81W-84W. Scattered showers are also seen near the coast
of Panama. Latest ASCAT indicates moderate easterly trades across
the east and central Caribbean while a N to NE moderate to fresh
wind is present west of 77W to 84W. Plenty of drier air is
noticeable in water vapor imagery across the eastern Caribbean.

A weak Bermuda High to the north of the area is promoting
generally moderate to fresh trade winds until early Mon. As a
stronger Bermuda High builds in Mon through Wed, winds and seas
will increase over the central and eastern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N47W to 26N59W to 25N66W. The
front becomes dissipating stationary front from 25N66W to 26N74W,
then a surface trough curves NW to a 1018 mb low near 30N76W. A
surface trough ahead of the front extends from the SE Bahamas NE
to 25N63W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen
from 24N-31N between 51W-64W. Elsewhere across the basin, broad
1031 mb ridge is centered near 35N26W remaining in control of the
region. ASCAT shows moderate to fresh E to NE flow across the area
N of 13N.

$$
Torres
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