[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071123
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
622 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 07N11W to 04N17W, and 02N26W. The ITCZ continues from
02N26W to 01N43W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ
from 31W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is to the
south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 23W eastward. Rainshowers
are possible also from the ITCZ to 12N between 31W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans Mexico. Upper level
NW-to-W wind flow is moving across the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from a 1019 mb 30N88W low pressure center,
to the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 23.5W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level
clouds and possible rainshowers are within 60 nm to 75 nm on
either side of the cold front.

Benign marine conditions will prevail across the basin this
weekend. A strong cold front will push into the NW Gulf of on
Tuesday, and then extend from northern Florida into the Bay of
Campeche by Wednesday afternoon. Minimal gale-force northerly
winds are possible, to the west of the front, along the coast of
Mexico, on Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Precipitation: Isolated moderate is from 17N southward between 80W
and 85W, including in the coastal plains from Honduras to Panama.
The precipitation has been related to wind speed convergence that
is present in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, is on top of the area of
precipitation.

Fresh trade winds will persist across most of the region through
Sunday night. Strong high pressure, building to the north of the
area, will allow the winds and the seas to increase early next
week in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N50W to 28N60W to 26N67W. The front
becomes a dissipating stationary front from 26N67W to 26N72W and
27N76W. A surface trough is along 28N54W 24N64W, to northern
Haiti. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 26N to 30N between 45W and 60W, and from 20N and the coastal
waters of the Dominican Republic to 27N between 60W and 73W.

Strong high pressure will build southward across the
central Atlantic Ocean, to the northeast of the Bahamas, on Sunday
and Monday. The resultant tight pressure gradient will bring
increasing winds and building seas to the northern waters, from
Sunday evening through Monday night. A cold front will move off
the southeast U.S.A. coast on Wednesday.

$$
MT
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